Using NBA 2K20 to predict Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

The Miami Heat look to defend their near spotless home floor against the visiting Boston Celtics. What does our NBA 2K20 simulator say about the matchup?

Once again, the Miami Heat are up against Eastern Conference rival Boston Celtics, and once again, it’s on the second night of a back-to-back. Although the scheduling is eerie, the Heat should have a much easier time preparing for this matchup. Last time these teams faced off, Miami had just eked out a tough overtime win against the Raptors in Toronto. The team then traveled overnight to Boston, where they would suit up short-handed and get pounced on by the rested Celtics.

I think it’s safe to assume the Heat will be down at least one player this time around, but given how the team has played the last two games without Kendrick Nunn, I’m optimistic the Heat can compete at a high level against Boston.

It feels as if the Celtics have surged lately, but truth be told, they’re only 5-5 in their last ten games with a signature win against the Los Angeles Lakers. They have three losses to sub .500 teams during that stretch. They’ve had their own version of players missing games here and there, but this team is extremely beatable.

I bumped up the Heat’s rotation to 11 players by adding Dion Waiters and Chris Silva and continued to distribute the minutes to mimic the action each player saw in Friday night’s loss to the LA Clippers. Since Kendrick Nunn has now missed two games due to an Achilles injury, I continued to hold him out for this matchup. Afterward, I headed over to the coaching tab and moved up Coach Spoelstra’s run zone tendency from 5-percent to 50-percent. While on this pane, I finally decided to change more of the coaching tendencies. I designated the team’s top three scoring options to be Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo in that order. I also changed Bam Adebayo’s secondary position to power forward since Meyers Leonard‘s positions look that way. Lastly, I edited Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo’s vitals to allow them to initiate the offense.

NBA 2K20 had head coach Erik Spoelstra’s defensive rating an A while having his offensive rating at a D. I’ve put up with this for way too long, so I changed his defensive rating to a B-. I cam about that rating by sorting all 30 NBA teams by points per game then divided 30 by the amount of letter grades that are available from F all the way up to A+ (13). This came out to about 2.3 teams being in each grade level with Miami hovering around a B to B-.

If you want to see the simulation for yourself, check out the latest video on my YouTube channel. There I’ll be showing you the adjustments I made.

Starting Lineup

Boston Celtics

Point guard, Kemba Walker

Shooting guard, Jaylen Brown

Small forward, Gordon Hayward

Power forward, Jayson Tatum

Center, Daniel Theis

Miami Heat

Point guard, Tyler Herro

Shooting guard, Duncan Robinson

Small forward, Jimmy Butler

Power forward, Bam Adebayo

Center, Meyers Leonard

Outcome

Boston Celtics 126, Miami Heat 127

The Miami Heat came out guns blazing in the first half scoring 36 and 33 points in each quarter. So far, to this point, the simulation was a snooze fest, and I was ready to celebrate another virtual Heat win. At the break, the Heat held a commanding 69-49 lead, but as every coach in the NBA has said, the run is coming, and you have to be prepared. We all know that no professional NBA team is just going to roll over and accept defeat that early, and this game was no different.

I don’t know what happened in the locker room during the break, but the Heat were running for their lives for the entire second half. They were outscored in the third quarter by five points, which in the grand scheme of things wasn’t too bad, but you could just feel something bad was about to happen. With five minutes left in the game, the heat still had a 15 point lead. All they had to do was manage the game and leave with a W. The Celtics had other plans and closed the quarter on a 26-12 run coming within just one point of the Heat, but they ran out of time.

Player stats

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum – 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block

Marcus Smart – 18 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 block

Kemba Walker – 17 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block

Enes Kanter – 17 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal

Daniel Theis – 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks

Miami Heat

Tyler Herro – 22 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals

Bam Adebayo – 19 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks

Jimmy Butler – 18 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal

Meyers Leonard – 14 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists

Duncan Robinson – 12 points, 2 assists

Honorable Mention: Goran Dragic – 11 points (4-14), 3 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal

This digital Heat team is oddly similar to the real-life version, and they illuminate some things the team needs to shore up ASAP. Yes, the two-seed is great and all, but if you think your team is going to come into the playoffs and find success still letting big-time double-digit leads evaporate on a nightly basis, you’ve got another thing coming. This time the Boston Celtics ran out of time to complete the comeback. Next time the Heat won’t be so lucky.