Predicting the Miami Heat’s 2020-21 win/loss record
As the Miami Heat get ready to tip off their season, here is our prediction on how they’ll do.
The Miami Heat are coming back on Wednesday night after what has been the most compact offseason in NBA history. That doesn’t matter though as there are no more excuses.
Everybody else is back too. With that, Wednesday should see the Heat kick things off on a high note, with the thrill of an in-state matchup with Orlando to help them ride through it.
That’s just the first game of the season though. What about the remaining 71 after that?
That’s where we come in handy today. Here is our prediction for the Miami Heat’s win/loss record and finish within the conference.
The NBA only has a limited schedule out right now, so we could only actually look at the first 37 games to make a decision. When looking at each of the games, we came out to a record of 27-10 through the first 37.
The Miami Heat have a tough road ahead of them to get back to the NBA Finals.
We were being generous, so at worst, this should be the Heat record. At 37, there isn’t an even number of games on the other side to get to 72, so while you could simply mimic the same record if the numbers matched, there is still a formulaic way of doing things.
At 27-10, that’s winning about 72.9 percent of your games. Well, the full 72 game schedule minus those 37 games is 35.
If you then multiply 35, the remaining number of games, times the winning percentage from their first 37, which was again 72.9 percent, it allows you to come to a concrete and uniformed prediction. That’s how I came out to 26-9 for the remaining 35 contests.
Again, this percentage is being generous to the competition, so it would not surprise me to see the Heat surpass both of these expectations. On the other side though, it would surprise if the Heat had worst records than these in the two respective periods.
To get a complete thing, all you have to do is add up the records. That means, for me, the Miami Heat will finish no less than 53-19.
I think that this record should also be good enough for the number three seed in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is an explosive and deep team, so you save room for them to land a top-three seed.
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Between Philly and Milwaukee, one of those guys will get the other top-three seed. Then Miami should sit in the other.
We get our first real pieces of evidence on Tuesday though. I can’t wait to see if they help make my case.