What are the Miami Heat’s chances of re-signing Willie Reed?

January 6, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Miami Heat forward Willie Reed (35) controls the ball against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
January 6, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Miami Heat forward Willie Reed (35) controls the ball against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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How much will Willie Reed command on the free agent market, and will that price by too rich for the Miami Heat?

After signing with the Miami Heat last year, Willie Reed is expected to bypass his $1.6 million player option and enter free agency this summer, according to the Palm Beach Post’s Anthony Chiang, where he’ll find a more lucrative contract.

In one season with the Heat, Reed averaged 5.3 points and 4.3 rebounds in 14.5 minutes per game. He played in 71 games, and started five. Reed was Hassan Whiteside’s primary backup and was effective in that role, allowing head coach Erik Spoelstra to play 48 minutes with a true center on the floor.

The question is: Will the Heat have enough cap space to re-sign Reed?

Miami is already expected to prioritize James Johnson and Dion Waiters from its own free agents, and that doesn’t include trying to add to the roster. Even with Chris Bosh expected to come off the salary cap, the Heat will have about $36 million to spend and a big chunk of that is likely to go toward Johnson and Waiters.

Reed may be the odd man out if the Heat can’t match substantial offers from other NBA teams. The price for free agent centers saw a spike last summer, which could help gauge the market available for Reed.

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Take a look at who signed last year:

  • Timofey Mozgov: 4 years, $64 million
  • Bismack Biyombo: 4 years, $72 million
  • Ian Mahinmi : 4 years, $64 million

Reed’s per 36 numbers (13.1 points, 11.6 rebounds) are in line with Mahinmi’s (13.1 points, 10.1 rebounds), who signed a deal worth $16 million a year. However, all three of those players struggled to live up to their contracts in their first season, which could drive the market down for this summer’s free agent centers.

On the other hand, last year’s class of centers was much deeper than the upcoming class. We’re talking about the likes of Roy Hibbert, Jeff Withey, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Nene Hilario and Tiago Splitter topping off the group of unrestricted free agents. Teams may view Reed as the top young center available, which could drive his price up.

Looking at the market, Reed should be able to command upwards of $10 million per season. If that’s the case, he’ll likely be priced out of the Heat’s budget. The question then becomes whether or not he’d be willing to take a lesser salary to stay in Miami.

Next: Free agent replacements for James Johnson

“We all have families,” Reed told the Palm Beach Post. “We all want to be a part of something special. I love this team, I love these guys in the locker room. Being here would be great. Hopefully something works out.”