Let’s open the Miami Heat mailbag with this question from Brian…
The offense looks so much better and like something had clicked past couple of games. Are they doing anything different or is it simply that other non-Tyler Herro players have finally started to consistently make shots?
— Brian 'BC' Castaldo (@BC_Castaldo) December 9, 2024
The offense looks so much better and like something had clicked past couple of games. Are they doing anything different or is it simply that other non-Tyler Herro players have finally started to consistently make shots?
The Heat have scored 120 or more points in each of their last three games and have moved into ninth in ORTG for the season. This is (mostly) the same Heat team that has ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency for the last two seasons, but a few things have changed.
First, and this might be the biggest thing, the are on a hot streak. The Heat are shooting 45% on 3s, so that will regress a bit, but it’s not an enormous aberration.
The Heat are making 38.3% of their 3s for the season, so they are still one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams. What doesn’t feel sustainable is that they are making 57% of their tightly contested 3-point attempts during this stretch.
The Heat are getting the shots they want.
Secondly, and more important to Miami’s offense long term, the chart has crystalised.
The Heat are attempting fewer than four mid-range shots per game – the fewest in the league over the last three games, while generating the third-most corner 3s and eighth-most shots in the restricted area.
As Miami has ramped up its 3-point shooting volume, opponents are respecting its shooters and closing out harder, which has opened up the paint.
Watch here on Miami’s first point of Sunday’s win over the Cavaliers. Even though everybody sees Jimmy Butler about to attack the paint, the Cavs can’t sell out on his drive because of the respect they have for Miami’s shooters. So Butler gets the switch he wants and attacks Darius Garland 1 on 1.
The Heat probably aren’t a top-10 offense, but they also weren’t as bad as they were to start the year.
Adebayo’s touch has returned. He’s shooting 58% from the field during this stretch.
Butler’s usage rate is at exactly 20% of these last three games, which has been Miami’s most important benchmark over the last several seasons.
And Herro has been mesmerizing, averaging 27.3 points on 58% shooting (51.7% on 3s) in his last three games.
I wrote about this in my postgame observations, but consistently getting good performances from their three best players at the same time is the best way for the Heat to win games. As they step up, it makes the game easier for role players like Terry Rozier, Dru Smith, Haywood Highsmith and others to fill in where they are needed instead of being asked to do more than they might be capable of.
The Heat won’t always shoot this well, and the schedule has provided a couple of unexpected breaks (the Lakers are a mess, and the Suns were without Kevin Durant). Still, the most important thing they can take away from this win streak is that when their best three players play well, they are a formidable team.