The Miami Heat enter Monday night’s game against the Detroit Pistons on a four-game winning streak. The new starting lineup has fueled Miami’s best stretch of basketball this season.
That’s because coach Erik Spoelstra, after some mixing and matching, has found the right player combinations to optimize his lineups.
Best backcourt combination: Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson
The Heat are out-scoring opponents by 13.2 points every 100 possessions in the 290 minutes Herro and Robinson share the floor. This is a remarkable development for a team that has struggled to play the two guards together in the past. Here’s a look at Miami’s net rating with Herro and Robinson together over the last few seasons:
2024-25: 13.2 (110.4 DRTG, 290 min)
2023-24: 0.4 (112.5 DRTG, 429 min)
2022-23: 0.5 (115.3 DRTG, 198 min)
2021-22: 0.3 (109.9 DRTG, 63 min)
The biggest difference hasn’t just been on the defensive end, where lineups with Herro and Robinson are holding opponents to a respectable 110.4 points every 100 possessions. Offensively, they are torching defenses by scoring 123.5 points every 100 possessions they are on the court. That’s the equivalent of the league’s best offense and ninth-ranked defense.
Herro’s willingness to embrace a more efficient shot profile is a big reason for this change. He’s acting as a true floor-spacer now, not just a theoretical one. Defenses have to account for Herro and Robinson beyond the arc, which creates space for teammates in the paint.
Defensively, they’re competing and fouling less than ever. Both things are helpful. (Robinson and Herro are also big for their positions. Herro at 6-foot-5 and Robinson at 6-foot-7. That helps.) But their spacing allows the Heat to play three so-so shooters with them who are elite defenders – Jimmy Butler, Haywood Highsmith and Bam Adebayo.
The potential was always here, but small tweaks to each of Herro’s and Robinson’s game has paid off exponentially.
Best frontcourt combination: Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler
No surprise here, the Heat’s best frontcourt combination just so happens to be two of their best players. But here’s the surprising thing: The Heat are elite with Bam and Jimmy on the floor, but merely average when one of them is one the court without the other.
The Heat are out-scoring opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions with Bam and Jimmy on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. That number drops to plus-2.6 when Adebayo plays without Butler, and plus-0.5 when Butler plays without Adebayo.
Only five of Miami’s two-man combinations have spent more time together this season. Two of those include Terry Rozier after he began the season as a starter, so Adebay0 and Butler will only climb that leaderboard.
The problem is that the Heat are losing the minutes Butler and Adebayo are of the court by 16.2 points per 100 possessions.
Spoelstra’s challenge is finding ways to keep Butler and Adebayo on the court together as much as possible, while also limiting the minutes they are off the floor at the same time.