19 Predictions for the Miami Heat Season

Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (1) is pressured by Houston Rockets forward Donatas Motiejunas (20) during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

LeBron James is no longer playing for the Miami Heat and the team returns only seven players from last season’s tram following a fast and furious rebuild. We don’t know how healthy Dwyane Wade will be this season, or if Chris Bosh can shoulder an increased scoring responsibility on a night-to-night basis. Hell, we don’t even know how this “move-the-ball” offense will look when Josh McJesus returns from toe-surgery to the starting lineup.

That makes predictions even more fun, and more necessary, as we approach the tip off the 2014 NBA season. No one knows just what will happen this season. The NBA is often times completely predictable when it comes to who will be good and who won’t. But it’s very unpredictable when it comes to the minutia.

If you had money on Kevin Durant and Paul George each undergoing serious injuries before the season even started, you probably made a zillion dollars on 550-to-1 odds. If you had any money on Kawhi Leonard winning NBA Finals MVP, you made a butt load. Did you guess that Goran Dragic would emerge as one of the best point guards in the league last season? Sir, you must be a mothuf****n soothsayer.

So even if the odds are against these things happening–or maybe they strike you as completely obvious–I’m giving it an educated guess. Without further ado, 19 Predictions for the Miami Heat season.

1. Shabazz Napier will start more than one game

So far I’ve nailed my point guard predictions for the season, calling Norris Cole getting the starting job and using Mario Chalmers as a sixth man at the beginning of the preseason before Erik Spoelstra did it. I credit myself, completely, for this development. I’m going to make it a streak by predicting that Shabazz Napier will start more than one game this season at point guard, and it won’t be due to injury.

At the rate of Napier’s progression from the summer league to the preseason, he should be ready to handle the starting role something this season. My guess would be sometime in 2015, as well as my hope (you don’t want Cole being so bad they are forced to start a rookie).

Shabazz was down right terrible during the summer league. He couldn’t hit a shot and, like many NBA players, that limited him from doing much else. During the preseason, he must have gotten used to the size of the basketball, because he emerged as one of Miami’s clutch shooters during the preseason and progressed to the point of impact against first and second string guys.

Right now, Napier is just a more natural shot creator and facilitator than either Cole or Chalmers. If Shabazz continues to progress like this–improving his defense to at least less than a vulnerability and getting more in tune with the ball movement the Heat want–he’ll be the best point guard on the roster and Spo will have no choice but to start him.

Combine Napier’s promise with the almost-guaranteed struggles Cole and Chalmers will go through this season, and I see the UConn Hero starting a few games this season.

2. Chris Bosh will make the all-star team and an all-NBA team

I take issue with saying Chris Bosh will be the “No. 1 option” on offense this season. We’ve heard over and over that the Heat will want to move the ball like the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs don’t have a No. 1 option like most teams and, if it’s up to the Heat, neither will they.

Still, you can expect CB to get his. As the team’s most consistent player, he’ll likely lead the team in points per game and should lead the team in rebounds, too. Bosh didn’t do a good job rebounding in the past, with his rebound rate dropping each of his for seasons in Miami. That’s because Bosh spent a lot of time on the three-point line on offense and trapping the pick-and-roll on defense. He was rarely in position to grab a rebound.

Since he’ll be asked to do more on offense and get to the rim on the drive or by posting up, he’ll be closer to the basket and in better position for offensive rebounds. He will still trap pick-and-rolls on defense, but the Heat will probably be less aggressive because–without LeBron–will be less inclined to get in transition.

We’ve already seen some of the difference. During the preseason, Bosh averaged 28.4 minutes, 18.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Adjusted per 36 minutes (the amount he will likely play this season), that comes out to 24 points and 9.25 rebounds per game. That’s not all-star numbers. That’s all-NBA numbers, people.

And Bosh will only get better the more he gets used to his new spot higher on the totem pole.

3. James Ennis will have four jaw-dropping highlights

Buried behind Luol Deng, Danny Granger and Mario Chalmers, Ennis may not see a ton of minutes this season. When he does, it will likley be in garbage time or against third unit guys. He’ll be the most athletic guy on the court and will use this chance to get some oo’s and aw’s from the remaining crowd. Expect a dunk this season that will make you say “wow.” Like this!

4. Dwyane Wade will play at least 70 games this season

That maintenance program that predetermined that Wade would miss 28 games last season? Yeah, that’s not a thing this season. Wade could have played more than those 54 games he played last season, but Spoelstra wanted to save his body for the post-season.

Wade not only worked in the offseason to slim down, but Spo won’t be able to rest Wade and cruise to the playoffs. This basic premise means Wade will play more than 54 games. But 70? Well, let’s just say I have faith in D-Wade. It’s a prediction.

5. The 15 guys that start the season won’t be the 15 that end it

The Heat recently trimmed its roster to 15, but those 15 guys won’t be the same that end the season. The Heat are a team with an identity crisis. When a team doesn’t know it’s identity, some players just won’t end up fitting in. Those players could get moved for players who do.

Who could that be? Guys like Norris Cole, Shannon Brown, Andre Dawkins, Danny Granger, Shawne Williams and Justin Hamilton. Look, I like most of those guys. But some of them are reserves who could fit in better elsewhere. Then there is Cole, who is working on an expiring deal (the Heat can extend him by Oct. 31, which could change things).

Then there is the lingering possibility of signing Emeka Okafor, who won’t play until mid-season because of a herniated disk. Should Okafor be ready to play by, say, December or January, and would want to sign with the Heat, Miami could make room for him by cutting Hamilton.

There are too many guys who can get pushed out of the rotation and moved for someone else. I’m playing the odds on this one.

6. Mario Chalmers will reinvent himself as a sixth man

We know what Mario Chalmers is. He’s unpredictable, game to game. He’s plateaued as a point guard, specifically as a facilitator, and has been asked to be a more aggressive scorer by his teammates this offseason (more on this later). Starting Cole over Chalmers not only puts a player with more room to grow in the point guard spot, but puts Chalmers in a brand new position that better suits his strengths.

Rio has some great scoring skills. He is good at getting to the rim, has a tendency to get the ball over big men and is a good spot-up shooter. Get Wade to teach him the art of cutting and you have turned Chalmers into a 2-guard who has the experience of initiating an offense.

Maybe Chalmers doesn’t get mentioned for Sixth Man Of The Year, but at 28 he will begin his path to one day being in the discussion.

7. Miami will shoot more 3-pointers this season

The Heatles were one of the most efficient offensive teams of the modern NBA era. LeBron led a charge that utilized the post and whipped the ball around to find open shooters. Now the Heat won’t have the dominant post-presence that LeBron was, but will rely on ball movement. Just a different time of ball movement. Less inside-out and more side pick-and-rolls, dribble handoffs, backdoor cuts and things of that nature. Coach stuff.

Unless Wade goes vintage, Miami doesn’t have a dominant scorer like LeBron either. They will rely on more possible points per possession, and will shoot more 3-pointers. The Heat shot 1,829 three-pointers last season, per NBA.com/Stats. More and more teams are shooting more and more 3-pointers. Because of need and trends, Miami will venture into the 1,900’s.

Looking at the preseason, the Heat shot 23.6 3-pointers per game. That’s 1.3 more than last season’s 22.3 average. That comes out to 1,936.65 3’s over 82 games. Granted, eight games is a small sample size and the Heat played from behind in many of the first preseason games, forcing them to take more 3’s. But Wade also took more 3’s than he did all of last season and Miami showed a tendency to find open looks behind the arc before looking for chances in the post (different prioritization than the last few season).

Oct 18, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Miami Heat point guard Norris Cole (30) goes up for a layup against the San Antonio Spurs during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

8. The Heat will shop Norris Cole

Like I said, Cole is on an expiring deal (for now, and the Heat aren’t showing urgency to extend him) and have voids on the wing and possibly in the front court. With Chalmers reinventing himself as a valuable sixth man and Shabazz showing progress, Cole could be expendable. Especially if the Heat get the right player in return. But they probably won’t.

9. Danny Granger will play fewer than 70 games this season

He’s overcoming leg injuries. He is a maintenance program candidate. He backs up Luol Deng, who doesn’t miss games. He played more than 70 games just twice in his nine-year career and the last time was the 2010-11 season. 70 games ain’t happening.

10. The Heat won’t make any deals at the trade deadline

Except for Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts, everyone Pat Riley signed this offseason comes off the books by the offseason of 2016. He’s waiting for that loaded free agent class to revamp around Bosh. Not only don’t the Heat have many valuable assets worth dealing, but they won’t be willing to take on contracts longer than one-or-two years. Oh, and they don’t have a first round draft pick. That severely limits trade options, and makes a deadline deal far less likely.

11. Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers will play at least 600 minutes together

With Cole starting at point guard and Chalmers being the sixth man, both guys will play around 30 minutes per game. That’s about five more minutes per game for Cole. The two played 435 minutes together last season, and that was without Chalmers being a full-blown combo guard like he is now. When Chalmers comes in, he may often be coming in for Wade. When Rio played point guard last season, he played 721 minutes with Ray Allen. Allen and Wade played 657 minutes together. 600 minutes for a point-guard, backup guard combo isn’t that much. I could be bolder and say they’ll play 700 minutes together.

Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Mario Chalmers (15) is presumed by Houston Rockets guard

(2) during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

12. Mario Chalmers will be the team’s third-leading scorer

Of all my predictions, this is the most out there. The obvious top three would be Bosh, Wade and Luol Deng. Here’s my reasoning, Chalmers will be needed to score points, and lots of them. It’s a depressing idea for Heat fans, but it’s true. Deng will need to score point to, and I’m not saying he won’t do so. But Deng will be going against starting guys nearly all season long and won’t be the first or second option while on the court. Chalmers, coming off the bench, will be going against backups for much of the time and will be one of the top options (and will have the ball in his hands with the chance to create his own shot). Deng will be more consistent–scoring 10-14 points more often that not–but I can see Chalmers inflating his numbers with some 20-something point outings.

13. The Heat will come in second in the Southeast Division

The Heat are top heavy, with Bosh and Wade still among the best at their respective positions. But as Heat fans well know, the 82-game season is a marathon. Depth matters. A lot. And the Heat don’t have it. Unless one of the rookies–Napier, Ennis or Andre Dawkins–steps up in a big way, this team lacks depth. My main concern with the Heat is that this team will rely on 3-point shots. Like I said. But this team will struggle to get hot from 3. Meanwhile, the Wizards have a dominate backcourt (once Brad Beal comes back from injury) and an imposing power rotation. It added Paul Pierce to give them that extra umph. Right now, Washington’s the better team.

14. Miami will get the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference

Miami will lose the Southeast Division, but not by much. I’m not betting against the Heat Way, Dwyane Wade on his swan song F-you tour, Bosh on a Raptor rampage, Erik Spoelstra master minding points and Pat Riley being Pat Riley. This team still has more experience than anyone in the East and one of the better coaches in the league. Maybe they can’t pull it together to out-win the Wizards for 82 games, but they’ll be in the playoff mix. Given a choice between them, the Hornets, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks and Nets, I’m taking the Heat.

Read on to check out the bold predictions from the All U Can Heat staff.

Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3) is pressured by Houston Rockets guard

(13) during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

David Ramil: Dwyane Wade will score at least 20 points per game, and not make the All-Star Game

I admit it, I cheated as I actually made two predictions! I bend the rules to my advantage!!!

Firstly, yes, I expect Wade to score 20 points per game, or be at that level around All-Star voting time. But it won’t matter because he won’t get voted in and, after 11 seasons, the coaches won’t choose him either. The rule change to make voting for “backcourt” or “frontcourt” players works against Wade in this case; he’d be much more likely to get voted in as the top shooting guard in the Eastern Conference. Instead, his main competition are (in no particular order) Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, John Wall, Kemba Walker, Lance Stephenson and Deron Williams.

Maybe even Jimmy Butler.

He won’t get voted in because the Heat will be making significantly fewer appearances on national television and, without the attention that is a byproduct of playing with LeBron James, the average fan won’t be able to deviate from the widely-accepted narrative that “Wade is done.” Irving will get the national coverage, Rose is (if healthy) the feel-good story and Lowry was shafted last year. Ultimately, even if he’s deserving, voters and coaches will simply bypass Wade as his career nears its end.

However, I’ll cheat again (YES!) and add this caveat; Wade’s existing shoe deal with Li Ning manufacturing in China is a significant monkey-wrench. His popularity in the world’s most populous country can’t be overlooked and could sway the vote in his favor. Still, while it’s great to have Wade represent the Heat (and good luck getting Bosh to leap past Kevin Love or “that guy” in Cleveland), the extended break is much more important at this stage in his career.

December 4, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra watches form the bench against the Washington Wizards at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Posada: The Heat will win 50 games and the Southeast

With the departure of You Know Who, everyone has turned their attention away from Miami and left them for dead. Which is fine. The less attention, the better. But I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Heat win 50 games this year, clinching the Southeast division and lock up the 3-seed. Crazy? Maybe, but this team has potential to be very good.

It’s not like talent is an issue, it’s the team’s health that raises concerns, which is understandably so. Yes, Dwyane Wade is the the big red flag when this topic comes up, as he’s missed a considerable amount of time the past three years (although he’s played more in that span than guys like Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving). Wade sitting tended to be more precautionary, and the Heat had the luxury of You Know Who and playing in the East that they could get away with it. Now the situation has changed, so will Erik Spoelstra mindset. Wade looked great towards the end of the preseason, which is encouraging going forward.Also looking great was Chris Bosh. He was eighth in the preseason in points per game, as he seems to be making the adjustment back to the No. 1 option quite seamlessly. I feel he does keep the pace up and carries the Heat for long stretches of the season.

As for the competition inside the division, Charlotte has to gel Lance Stephenson in with Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson (not an easy task), while Washington has to start off without Bradley Beal for the first month or so. Atlanta is a team to watch, with Al Horford returning from injury. But the Heat have as much talent as any of those teams. Oh, and Orlando is a team that plays in the division. I guess that means something.

Of the Heat’s 16 opponents to start the season, 10 of them made the playoffs. But one of them is Indiana, and only three are from the West. It’s not too daunting of a task. But if this team can stay healthy–the argument for any team–than there’s no reason for this prediction not to come true.

Oct 18, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Miami Heat president Pat Riley (center) watches from the stands during the second half against the San Antonio Spurs at AT&T Center. The Heat won 111-108 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Blaine Hunkins: Norris Cole will be traded before the deadline

After drafting Shabazz Napier and re-signing of Mario Chalmers, it seems Norris Cole is the odd man out. We’ve seen how good (and inconsistent) Napier can be, and his ceiling is a lot higher than Cole’s. Over the course of preseason, Spoelstra started Cole in all of the games. Why would they do such a thing? To showcase him for a trade.

Ehsan Kassim: The Heat will make a major acquisition, via trade. Al Horford big.

Pat Riley is not known to be a guy that will stand around and accept anything less than greatness. While he’ll be happy with the effort the Heat put on the court, he will see the Cavs and Spurs and wonder what more it will take to win another ring.

Around the trade deadline, Riley will play the trade market and see how he can upgrade his team. When the Hawks make Al Horford available, Riley will package Cole, McRoberts, and Ennis (probably involve a third team) and ship them to Atlanta for Horford’s services.

Horford fits right into the Riley plan of 2016, as he’ll become an unrestricted free agent at the time and allow the Heat to add another player besides the big 3 of Wade, Bosh and Horford.

Oct 24, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (1) posts up against Memphis Grizzlies forward

(21) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Allana Tachauer: Chris Bosh will average a 20-plus point, double-double per game, Raptors style.

LeBron James is no longer on the Miami Heat, I know. And yes, I am also aware that he is now on the Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that also happens to be in the Eastern Conference. But hope is not lost.

Remember when Chris Bosh was on the Toronto Raptors, between 2003-2009? And was averaging 24+ points and 10+ rebounds a game, circa 2009? Well I predict that this year, Bosh will make his comeback. The big man has not exactly had a bad year since entering the league, always being considered a top-contender of the game. But as expected, once he joined forces with James and Dwyane Wade, his shine was dulled ever-so-slightly. In fact, since signing with the Heat, Bosh’s numbers have gone down year after year.

With James out of the picture, and Wade nearing his end (guess that would be prediction number two), Bosh knows he has to step up if his team has any chance of staying afloat in the East. In order to prove the haters wrong, Bosh needs to be as proactive offensively, as defensively; something that is not an easy task. However, with 11 years under his belt and the support of president Pat Riley and head coach Erik Spoelstra, I am confident that Bosh can get the job done.

Gone are the days of Bosh being the less important member of the Big Three, featured only as the sidekick, the lackey, the yes-man. Miami is Bosh’s house now. Expect leadership coupled with big numbers and consistent performances from the veteran this year.

And yes, probably his famous velociraptor victory face, too.

Next: Let the Regular Season Begin!