Miami Heat: Southeast Division Preview

Oct 21, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Victor Oladipo (5) drives to the basket against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 10-107 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#4 – Orlando Magic – 2014-15: 25-57, 5th place in the Southeast

Projected starters: Elfrid Payton (PG), Victor Oladipo (SG), Aaron Gordon (SF), Tobias Harris (PF), Nikola Vucevic (C)

We’re entering Year Four of life after Dwight Howard and the Magic still seem to be circling the wagons. While they have some nice pieces making progress – Oladipo and Vucevic – and a young point guard in Payton adjusting to the speed of the NBA, they’re still a team without much of an identity. Enter Scott Skiles, a coach that works guys hard on defense, while also wearing out his welcome very quickly. Improving the defense is a major need for Orlando, as they were sixth worst in the NBA in defensive rating per 100 possessions (105.2), giving up 46% shooting, and 36.8% from downtown – third and second worst in the league, respectively. Skiles can help change that, assuming he doesn’t hurt anyone in the process.

How it can go right: Oladipo was seen as someone that could develop  in the mold of a Dwyane Wade, and he continues to trend in an upward progression, improving in points and field goal percentages in his second year. Now he’ll be looked upon to take another mini-leap in his third season. If he makes that jump, then the Magic have a star in the making.

The crown jewel of the Howard trade was Vucevic, who is as steady as they come at the center position. He averaged a double-double in points and rebounds for the third consecutive season, and can be a franchise cornerstone for years to come.

First round pick Mario Hezonja has shown flashes in the preseason that he can live up to the hype, averaging 10 points on 44% shooting, including 35.5% from three. If he can keep that pace off the bench, or even supplant Gordon, who really doesn’t have a defined position, then the young Magic will be fun to watch.

How it can go wrong: Skiles breaks all the kids, like a child who smashes toys on the ground for no predetermined reason.

If the defense can’t get turned around, then the land of The Mouse will suffer through another lost season.

The development of Oladipo and Payton is an important part of the foundation for the Magic, so taking a step forward is important for the building of this franchise. Also trying to figure out what Gordon is or isn’t might be helpful in sorting out the rotation.

First month (or so) of games: Washington, Oklahoma City, @Chicago, @New Orleans, @Houston, Toronto, @Philadelphia, @Indiana, Lakers, Utah, @Washington, Minnesota, Sacramento, @Cleveland, New York, Milwaukee, Boston.

Holy [edit]! Those first six games are a murderer’s row! If they can somehow scratch out a couple of wins, seven of their next nine are a bit more forgivable. A .500 start is ideal for a young team learning under a new coach, so we’ll see how far the kids have come.

Win/Loss Predication: 35-47, 4th place in the Southeast. I’m probably more optimistic than most with the Magic, but I like what they’re doing. A part of me wanted to squeeze them into the playoffs as an eighth seed, but I think the East has improved enough that 40 wins gets you in. But in the fourth season post-Howard, there needs to be a sign of improvement. They should definitely be a fun team to check out on League Pass.

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