The Miami Heat have been the NBA’s best second-half team this season. The reason why isn’t so surprising.
The Miami Heat used a 19-2 run in the second half of Saturday night’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers to rally back and get the win. You never want to have to “rally back” to beat the Sixers, but Miami’s comeback signifies one of the biggest themes of their season.
The Heat are the NBA’s best second-half team. They are beating teams by an average of 6.1 points in second halves, and are 15.2 points per 100 possessions during that period.
The sensational Warriors are second, at 12.2 points better per 100 possessions in the second half. For the game, the Warriors are 14.9 points better per 100 possessions than their opponents. So the Heat, in the second half, are playing better than the Warriors this season, per this stat.
The problem is Miami’s slow starts. If the second half is stellar for the Heat, the first half is anything but. In the first two quarters, the Heat are 1.1 points worse than their opponents per 100 possessions.
They are shooting 43.2 percent and averaging 9.3 turnovers in the first half, compared to shooting 48.7 percent and just seven turnovers in the second half.
So why are the Heat so much better in the second half than the first? Is Udonis Haslem cursing and throwing water bottles around the locker room every game? Gee, I hope not.
Erik Spoelstra has been great in his second half adjustments, but it’s also pretty simple. The Heat start every game trying to get guys like Goran Dragic and Luol Deng in an early rhythm.
Dragic, who has not been shooting well at all, is attempting 5.3 shots per game in the first half. Deng is putting up 5.1 shots. Both have struggled with their shots this season, with Dragic shooting just 41.7 percent from the field and Deng shooting just 44.8 percent.
In the second half, they aren’t shooting nearly as much, with Dragic and Deng getting 4.3 and 3.7 shots respectively.
As the game goes on, teams tend to go with the hot hands. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have been consistent, and guys like Gerald Green, Tyler Johnson and Justise Winslow are playing big minutes in the second halves, and playing better than the guys they back up.
However, the solution to fixing the slow starts is not as simple as starting Johnson and Winslow over Dragic and Deng. You can’t pay $85 million to a point guard and bench him for someone who was in the D-League this time last year.
Spoelstra is doing what he has to do. He is trying to give the guys who are struggling some early chances to establish some confidence. Dragic and Deng are veterans, who are playing well below their career averages. They will progress to the mean at some point, and when that happens, the Heat should become a more balanced team in both halves.