A lot of fans have been complaining that the Miami Heat don’t generate open shots. The numbers tell us that the problem is shot making, not shot creation.
Upon reading the Miami Herald’s Ethan Skolnick’s post (strongly recommend that quick read) on the amount of open shots the Miami Heat create, I decided to go more in depth and find more numbers behind Miami’s apparent shot making problem.
To start, here are some of Skolnick’s findings:
"Miami has had more uncontested shots in five of the games, including nine more in Saturday’s loss at Utah.The teams have had the same number in two of the games, the ones between the Heat and Memphis/Brooklyn.And two opponents — Orlando and Phoenix — has more uncontested shots, though both lost to Miami.The totals?Miami is 156-for-346, which is 43.8%.The nine opponents — excluding Washington — are 133-for-308, which is 43.1%."
But how do the Heat stack up to the rest of the league in that 10-game time frame?
According to NBA.com statistics, the Heat rank fourth in the league in generating “open” shots (open shots are defined by NBA.com as a shot in which the closest defender is four-to-six feet away).
However, they rank just 10th and 11th in field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage.
In the last 10 games, Miami ranks first in creating open 2-pointers but are 19th in percentage.
Then there is this. The Heat rank just 25th in creating open 3-point looks. Meanwhile, they are third in percentage at 40.8 percent! How’s that for a script flip? (However, on the season, the Heat rank near the bottom in open 3 percentage at 31.7 percent.)
Miami’s numbers this season are very similar to those of a team they seem to mimic–the San Antonio Spurs.
| Open (4-6 feet) – Season | ||||||
| Frequency | FG% | 2FG Freq | 2FG% | 3FG Freq | 3FG% | |
| Heat | 28.7%% | 44.20% | 18.20% | 51.30% | 10.50% | 31.70% |
| Spurs | 27.5%% | 45.00% | 17.90% | 51.20% | 9.60% | 33.60% |
| NBA Median | 28.00% | 43.00% | 16.20% | 50.20% | 12.30% | 34.10% |
When it comes to generating “wide open shots” (those taken with the closest defender more than six feet away), the Heat still have some work to do to catch up to San Antonio (most teams do), but are consistent with the league median.
| Wide Open (6+ feet) – Last 10 Games | ||||||
| Frequency | FG% | 2FG Freq | 2FG% | 3FG Freq | 3FG% | |
| Heat | 18.10% | 44.60% | 6.60% | 66.70% | 11.50% | 31.90% |
| Spurs | 20.60% | 48.60% | 11.30% | 51.6%% | 9.30% | 44.90% |
| NBA Median | 18.30% | 45.70% | 6.70% | 54.10% | 11.20% | 38.80% |
More heat: Is it time to trade Josh McRoberts? Here are 3 trade ideas.
Skolnick wrote his post in response to a lot of people saying that coach Erik Spoelstra doesn’t generate open shots with his offense. It’s neither better nor worse, but Miami’s problems do, indeed, lie with a lack of effective shot makers and floor spacers.