They Heat aren’t title contenders, but they can contend for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals with a couple of strategic trades.
The NBA tradeline is just a few days away. Will the Heat make moves or stand pat? No one knows for sure. However, we do know the Heat aren’t title contenders this year. But, they can make it to the eastern conference finals. I believe a few (realistically achievable) moves can make Lebron sweat, if not prevent his 6th straight finals appearance.
First, the Heat trade with the Celtics. The trade looks like this:
Why the Heat Do This: The Heat need improved 3-point shooting to help provide spacing for Wade and Dragic. Olynk is a stretch-5 who is shooting 41 percent from 3. A frontcourt of Bosh and Olynk would provide much needed spacing. Spacing is so important that it’s one reason why Spoelstra has recently preferred Stoudemire in the starting 5 over Whiteside, and it has worked. The Heat have won 6 of their last 9 games. Olynyk is also young at 24, and on a favorable rookie contract.
Sometimes, the Heat will want to play a more traditional game. While Zeller is no Whiteside, he is a competent defender who can alter opponents shots even if he can’t block them. He has also shown some ability in the pick-and-roll. Zeller is a restricted free agent this summer which means he won’t financially impede the Heat’s pursuit of a big-name free agent in the off season.
Both Olynyk and Zeller are role players at best, while Whiteside is a potential superstar. However, Whiteside’s contract means the Heat won’t get a much better offer for him. The consolation is the Philadelphia pick which is virtually guaranteed to be the 31st pick of the draft. It’s almost like getting a late 1st round draft pick.
This move saves the Heat save $1.7 million in salary, thereby reducing their luxury tax bill.
Why the Celtics Do This: One reason – the chance to sign a potential superstar in Hassan Whiteside to a long-term contract. Ainge craves a superstar, and with his bevy of draft picks, this is actually a low risk move.
As for Josh McRoberts, executives around the league still value what he brings. He is the ultimate glue guy, willing to do all the little things to make his teammates better.
In addition to the Celtics trade, the Heat also execute a trade with the Kings.
Why the Heat Do This: Pat Riley wants to win now and he needs 3-point shooting. Casspi is a reliable 42 percent 3-point shooter who can hit from anywhere on the floor, not just in the corner.
Caron Butler is of limited value and is required to make the salaries work. However, he is a former Heat player and is a reliable 3-point shooter. While he is seeing limited use with the Kings, previously he was shooting around 38 percent from 3.
This trade saves the Heat about $1.5 million in salary.
Why the Kings Do This: Tyler Johnson is a promising role-player who can be signed to a long-term contract at a reasonable price.
Overall Impacts
The combination of moves saves the Heat nearly $3.2 million in salary, greatly reducing their luxury tax bill. It preserves Heat flexibility in the offseason leaving about $36 million to sign Wade and a marquee free agent.
On the court, it improves the Heat spacing significantly. The Heat can now space the floor at all times with some combination of Bosh, Olynyk, Casspi, Deng, Green, and Butler. The heat can defend the perimeter with Deng, Winslow, and Green, which should make Zeller more effective as an interior defender. The heat can run pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop with Stoudemire, Olynyk, Bosh, and Zeller.
More heat: Grading the Miami Heat Trade Rumors
Despite advanced statistics saying otherwise, the Heat will likely be a worse defensive team without Whiteside. However, the defensive drop off should be minimal while the increased offensive fire power should allow the heat to be more consistent and more potent. While this team doesn’t beat the Cavs, it might just make it to the eastern conference finals. What do you think?