There is statistical evidence that bringing Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng off the bench could help the Miami Heat reach their potential.
The Heat starters are -1.8 points per 100 possessions against opponents, this means that in a typical game, if they Heat only played their starters, they would lose by 1.8 points. This should not be the case for a winning team. To put this in perspective, the most frequently used five-man lineup for the Cavaliers is +15.7 against opponents. Amazingly, the most frequently used five-man lineup for the Golden State Warriors is just +10. However, the “death” lineup of Curry-Thompson-Igoudala-Barnes-Green is a whooping +51.1 against opponents!
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Since stats don’t lie, the Heat should do what the statistics are telling them. After analyzing the data, it’s clear that the Heat need to modify the starting five. They need to bring Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng off the bench and start Gerald Green and Justise Winslow in their place.
While statistics don’t lie, they must be interpreted. The below analysis suffers from the fact that Spoelstra has been incredibly consistent in his rotations. The most frequent five-man lineup has logged 338 minutes together, while the second most used lineup has logged only 115 minutes together. Also, just looking at the plus/minus of the lineups can be misleading since the players on the second unit are most frequently going against the opponents second unit.
To try and get around these problems, we’ll take a look at the most effective two-man lineups. This provides some insight on who plays effectively together, and fuels the conjecture that the Heat should change their starting lineup. Each of the Heat’s best 2-man lineups have logged at least 500 minutes together.
Looking at these lineups, the first thing that jumps out is the value of Justise Winslow. Winslow is featured in six of the 11 two-man lineups that have positive points per 100 possessions. He is is not in a single two-man lineup that has negative points per possession.
Equally interesting is the fact the Dwyane Wade is in only 1 two-man lineup that has positive points per 100 possessions. That lineup is the pairing of Wade with Winslow. When Wade is paired with either Dragic, Whiteside, Bosh, or Deng, the pair have negative points per 100 possessions.
Combining the pairs with the highest points per 100 possessions would yield a starting lineup of Dragic-Green-Winslow-Bosh-Whiteside. Interestingly, this combination of five players has not logged significant time on the court.
However, the four-man lineup featuring Dragic-Green-Winslow-Bosh has played together 140 minutes and is a +21. The five-man lineup with these players that has logged the most on court time is Dragic-Green-Winslow-Bosh-Wade. Granted, they have only played 33 minutes together, but the are +28.6. It’s no wonder that Spoelstra is increasingly using this lineup to close out games.
Why does the five-man lineup of Dragic-Green-Winslow-Bosh-Whiteside work in theory? In this lineup, Dragic is the undisputed ball handler who can attack the rim. Green and Bosh are legitimate threats from 3 and provide spacing. Additionally, Green is an athlete who can finish at the rim. Winslow can defend the other teams best wing and slash to the basket while Whiteside and Dragic work pick-and-roll. It goes without saying that Whiteside is a rim protecting monster.
This lineup provides strong defense and an offense that maximizes each players talent. Additionally, this should bring out the best in Whiteside as he can be the second scoring option and he performs better when more involved in the offense.
If Wade were content to be the sixth man, a lineup of Wade-Johnson-Deng-McRoberts-Stoudemire would be a competent second unit with many of the features of the first. Wade would be the undisputed ball handler who can attack the rim. Further, as he ages, he would have more success going against lesser players. Johnson, like Green, is a legitimate threat from 3 and an athlete who can finish at the rim. Deng provides defense and slashing like Winslow. McRoberts, if he finds and takes his shot, can help spread the floor like Bosh. Finally, Stoudemire is a proven pick-and-roll threat.
This leaves Udrih out of the rotation, but Spoelstra could easily substitute him in either lineup for Dragic or Wade. In fact, using this model makes the roles for the other non-rotation bench players clear. Josh Richardson plays the Green/Johnson role. Udonis Haslem plays the Bosh/McRoberts role. Jarnell Stokes plays the Whiteside/Stoudemire role.
While it is unlikely that Wade accepts coming off the bench, it might be for the best. Just look at Golden State’s Andre Igoudala. By coming off the bench, Igoudala allowed Golden State to maximize their potential. And there is the example of Manu Ginobili who started coming off the bench for the San Antonio spurs at about the same age as Wade. Both players have continued to reap both personal and team success.
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If Wade is willing to give the experiment a chance, he might help the Heat reach their full potential.