Final thoughts before the Miami Heat return to the playoffs

We’ve arrived at the NBA Playoffs and it’s great to be back with you and the Miami Heat on its journey! The Heat clinched the Southeast Division in a anti-climatic fashion, so even after a great bounce-back season, there’s still some questions of concern. Time for All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada to get to the bottom of that.

Chris Posada: The long and winding road that is the NBA regular season is finally over and the Miami Heat find themselves back in the playoffs! To top it off, they went from lottery team to Southeast Division Champion and third seed in the East in their second year removed from the departure of You Know Who, while also losing Chris Bosh for the second half of the season! Truly remarkable!

Buuuuuuuuuuuuut…

That game against the Celtics sticks out like such a sore thumb. The Heat lost by double-digits in a game that they led by 26 points. They managed to score five points in the third quarter and looked completely lost in the second half against a tough Boston team. Yet the Hawks losing helped Miami back into the third seed, giving them homecourt against a very tough Hornets team that some feel makes this series ripe for an upset.

So, on a scale of the apocalypse to 10, how do you feel about the Heat going into the playoffs?

Wes Goldberg: While I don’t necessarily buy in to momentum being a factor going into the playoffs, you never want to fall backwards into them the especially embarrassing way the Heat just did.

I have to figure Erik Spoelstra, as the head coach of this team, will try to use the Boston game as a lesson and an experience to galvanize his team around. Try to turn it into a positive, y’know?

Mental states aside, the way the Celtics vaporized Miami’s defense with Kelly Olynyk at center is of huge concern. The Heat seemed completely lost against Boston’s five-out offense. They seemed confused about their assignments, who should help off of whom and when, and the Celtics took advantage by setting screen after screen.

The Charlotte Hornets do a lot of these same perimeter oriented things, and that’s freaking me out. Cody Zeller can do some things and Hornets coach Steve Clifford could slide Frank Kaminsky over to the 5, and lineup that scares the hell out of me. What concerns you with this Hornets matchup?

Posada: This was the matchup I wanted the least, since the Hornets pose all sorts of problems. Basically the Hornets going more to Zeller or Kaminsky, and limiting Al Jefferson, so it seems we’re on the same page. A Walker/Lee/Batum/Williams lineup with either of those two already has me sweating (that group with Zeller had a NetRtg of 17.4 in the teams’ last matchup; swap Jeremy Lin for Lee for the previous three games and it jumps to 54.8 in 13 minutes). That kind of group has given the Heat fits before (see the first Celtics game, as well as the home loss to the Wizards when Jared Dudley played the five).

The solution? When Jefferson is in the game, force the Hornets to get the ball to him. Stay home on the shooters and take your chances with the Jefferson/Hassan Whiteside matchup. In theory, taking Big Al out when the other Hornets haven’t gotten into a rhythm might play into the Heat’s hands. That’s just a guess.

But my main concern is that the Heat don’t really have that gear of putting teams away early. Miami has lost 13 times when they’ve had a double-digit lead this season, three of which came in April (Lakers, Magic, Celtics) and it’s alarming. It’s like they downshift when they get a large lead. Teams like the Hornets will always scratch and claw until the end, and now Miami will have to deal with that for possibly seven games. Maybe it was just the long, boring grind of the regular season that got to them and they’ll lock in for the playoffs. But if they don’t, this only goes one round.

The other noteworthy development was Spoelstra inserting Whiteside back into the starting lineup, since things were going well with Amar’e Stoudemire in the lineup. Of course, the Heat’s best lineup over that span was Whiteside playing with the starters (they had a NetRtg of 25.3). But since the move? 0.8, in 38 minutes. Small sample-size, and the Boston game throws that for a loop (-19.2 in 14 minutes), but does it make you wonder if this was a case of unnecessary tinkering when leaving well enough alone should have been the plan?

Goldberg: I hate the move of Whiteside back into the starting lineup, and was a proponent of Stoudemire remaining with the starters when a lot of fans were clamoring for the switch that was eventually made. However, two things are true: Stoudemire was wearing down and Whiteside made the improvements the coaching staff wanted to see. Rewarding Whiteside, in this regard, makes sense. I get that.

But this is less a knock on Whiteside and more about the team in general. Whiteside has to come off the bench, and Stoudemire needs to be back in the starting lineup. Udonis Haslem is injured and Josh McRoberts is not a center (not even a small-ball one). This is a two center team, and the best way to smooth out the balance of the roster is to bring Whiteside off the bench. There are too many guys in the starting lineup already that need the ball, and STAT fit well screening and rolling and doing the little things to free up Wade, Dragic and Joe Johnson.

At the same time, Whiteside gives the bench an identity that it misses without him. McRoberts at center and playing five-out isn’t effective, but Whiteside’s energy along with Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson is. Bring back the bench mob. With that, I think the Heat hold an advantage over Charlotte’s reserves.

Posada: Yeah, I get the idea behind moving Whiteside back into the lineup – he earned it – but the Heat had some advantages with him coming off the bench. Facing other teams second units allowed him to become involved on both ends of the floor; as a starter, he’s just another mouth to feed, and it’s not like he’s one of the top scoring options for them. But with the second unit, he can have his, which automatically got him engaged for the remainder of the game.

But my issue is that now you a backup rotation of Amar’e, McRoberts, and Haslem, which might as well be death. Spo might want McBob to play that stretch big role – which was the idea behind his signing – but we can obviously tell that’s not what he wants to be. Amar’e, at this stage, is just a pick and pop/screener/roller guy, and Haslem is just Haslem. If Amar’e starts to wear down, then they get extremely thin. This was why I was against the Dorell Wright signing: the Heat don’t really need him, they needed another big. I was pretty much alone on Carlos Boozer Island, but getting another big on the cheap to be able to throw another option out there when needed isn’t the worst idea.

Unless of course there’s another big we’re dismissing. Does Chris Bosh go Willis Reed and make a limited return off the bench?

Goldberg: Bosh won’t be back for the playoffs. But I think that’s an interesting question for next season if the Heat re-sign Whiteside.

I think Spoelstra hinted at something interesting when he went with Luol Deng as the nominal 5 against the Celtics. They made a tiny run there before Whiteside was sent back in. Whiteside will be the starting center to begin the playoffs, but we know Spoelstra is willing to tinker with his lineups from game to game or series to series. It’ll be interesting to see if he ends up making a return to the Stoudemire lineup, or if we’ll see more quirky stuff like Deng at the 5 again.

How much more confident are you with Spoelstra coaching this team through?

Posada: Deng has the five can work for stretches, especially against a team like Charlotte that will try to spread the Heat out. But that’s the thing with Spoelstra: you can trust him to find a way to make it all work. Whether they win or lose is more about performance, but he’s going to put them in the best possibility to win. For some reason, he gets a bad rap with Heat fans. If they win, it’s because Pat Riley put together the team, or because Wade/Johnson/Dragic whomever played well. But if they lose, fire the coach. It’s a tough spot for him to be in, yet I doubt he cares. He’s a great coach.

The Heat are the third seed in an improved Eastern Conference, while missing their best player and rebuilding everything on the fly. Miami went from slow and plodding to fast and exciting. They fixed some of what plagued Whiteside, while developing Josh Richardson, who went from unplayable to important rotation piece in the span of two months. That’s all on Spoelstra and his staff.

I agree with you when you said he’ll use the Boston debacle as some sort of learning tool. You know the Heat won’t just forget what happened. He’ll make sure it’s drilled in their heads and will try to make them better.

I trust in Erik Spoelstra.

So let’s get to it – who do you have winning?

Goldberg: I’m too scared. OK, Heat in six. You?

Posada:  I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome. But I’m also going with Heat in six.