Kevin Durant to the Miami Heat? No so far fetched according to ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith.
On his show, First Take, ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith opined that Kevin Durant should sign with the Miami Heat this summer, when he can opt out of his current contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder and become a free agent.
.@stephenasmith just now on @FirstTake - If I’m Kevin Durant and I leave OKC… There’s one place I’d go & it’s South Beach & the Miami Heat
— Jorge Sedano (@Sedano) May 2, 2016
Of course, Stephen A. Smith may have been assuming the Heat would be able to add Durant while keeping Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade among others. Unfortunately, the math doesn’t add up.
The Heat will have an estimated $40 million available for free agents this summer.
Whiteside is going to command a maximum salary around $22.5 million per year. Wade, the face of the Heat organization, has a fair market value of around $15 million per year.
Luol Deng is the perfect power forward for the new look Heat, and his playoff performance is increasing his market value. Deng is making $10 million per year right now, and his recent play could earn him something around that on the open market.
Finally, there is Joe Johnson. Johnson is on the tail end of his career and will command a salary between $5-$9 million per year, or something similar to Deng.
Add it all up, and the Heat can’t afford to keep their own players, much less sign Durant.
I can think of only one scenario in which the Heat keep the current playoff team while adding Kevin Durant – trade Chris Bosh.
Scenario (aka Bye Bye Bosh): In this scenario, the Thunder sign and trade Durant for Bosh.
The Heat do this because they recognize the hard truth that they play better uptempo, a style ill suited for Bosh, but perfect for Deng. The Thunder do this because otherwise they lose Durant for nothing. With this trade, the Thunder get an all-star player locked up for 3-years and a future first round pick. The Heat get one of the top three players on the planet for the duration of his prime.
The Heat find somewhere to dump Josh McRoberts, giving them $45 million in cap space. Prior to the Durant trade, the Heat sign Whiteside at $20 million per year, Deng at $10-12 million per year, Wade at $12-14 million and Johnson using the mid-level exception.
This gives the Heat a starting five of Dragic-Wade-Durant-Deng-Whiteside, with a bench of Johnson, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson. Adding Durant in exchange for Bosh would make the Heat instant favorites to win the East, and a legitimate threat to win a championship.
The odds of this happening: slightly better than slim to none. At this point, Bosh is too much of a health risk for a team to commit $60 million.
Unfortunately, there is no plausible way for the Heat to keep all the key members of the current team and also add Durant. Most likely, if Durant wants to play for the Heat, then it means Whiteside plays for someone else.