Don’t put those expectations on the Miami Heat’s young forward.
Even before he was selected 10th overall by the Miami Heat, Justise Winslow had been compared to two-way star, Kawhi Leonard, but are these comparisons even fair? Short answer: No.
At first glance, the similarities are apparent. As two super athletic wings with the ability to make an impact on both sides of the floor, it’s obvious why these two players would be mentioned together, but let’s get one thing straight; Leonard is a pipe dream.
Leonard is a top-five player in the league, Winslow wasn’t even drafted within the top five of his own draft class. If teams were to redraft the 2014 class, I’m still not sure Winslow would crack the first five.
At the end of the day, the thing that separates these two players is Kawhi’s ability to spread the floor. Winslow simply isn’t a consistent shooter, which he can develop over time, but Leonard was a perimeter threat even as a rookie. Leonard connected on 37.6 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc his rookie campaign, but Winslow shot a full 10 percent worse (27.6 percent).
More from All U Can Heat
- Grade the Trade: Heat grab Trae Young in shocking proposal
- NBA 2K24 Ratings: Takeaways and reactions to Miami Heat player ratings
- 4 Teams that should trade for Tyler Herro
- Miami Heat’s Nikola Jovic gives entire world reason to love him
- 1 Advantage the Heat have over every Southeast Division team
Obviously Winslow is young enough to develop into a more consistent shooter, but due to his lack of offensive firepower, he’s closer to being Tony Allen than Leonard. However, it’s also worth noting even Allen shot 38.7 percent on three-point attempts his rookie season.
Outside of shooting, the comparison between Leonard and Winslow is mildly fair, but in today’s NBA, your wings need to be capable of spreading the floor. Somewhere Evan Turner laughs while bathing in a tub of cash, but I stand by my point.
For Heat fans, more bad news follows when taking a deeper look into the analytics. According to ESPN’s Hollinger stats, Winslow ranked 60 among 63 small forwards with a -69.4 Value Added. Back when Leonard was a rookie, he ranked 15 among small forwards with a +141.1 Value Added. That’s a pretty sizable difference. Leonard also recorded a 16.6 Player Efficiency Rating, which almost doubled Winslow’s 8.4 PER (both as rookies).
Unfortunately for optimistic Heat fans, Winslow is simply nowhere near what Leonard was four-to-five years ago. It’s common for fans to overestimate the potential of young two-way wings. As a resident of the New York/New Jersey area, I remember when Iman Shumpert was supposed to be the future of the Knicks behind Carmelo Anthony. That didn’t quite turn out the way fans had hoped.
Now I know several Heat fans are either cursing vigorously or holding a cold compress to their foreheads but don’t get too discouraged. Winslow is a very talented defender with tremendous athleticism and a very high ceiling. Even if he doesn’t become Leonard–one of the best five players in the league–under the Heat’s tutelage he should develop into a very good all-around player.