After Preseason, What Are The Expectations For The Miami Heat?

The long national nightmare is over: the NBA is back! Of course, the Miami Heat’s place in the league has changed quite a bit since the last time we spoke. With so much change to the roster, and a sneak-peek at the team in limited action during the preseason, what are the expectations for the Heat? All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada give their thoughts.

Wes Goldberg: Preseason is over and meaningful basketball is here! Obviously there have been a lot of changes that we got to experience first-hand during the exhibition games. We saw Dwyane Wade play games in Chicago. We saw the worst-case scenario of the Chris Bosh situation play out. We saw Miami’s young core take the reigns. We saw Dion Waiters. We saw a wealthy Hassan Whiteside. So after seeing everything in those eight games, do you feel better or worse about this team than before the preseason?

Chris Posada: I think I had some high expectations – something like 43-45 wins – based on the idea that this roster has pieces that actually better than last year’s edition. Assuming they could run, spread the floor better, and improved chemistry of Dragic and Whiteside, I didn’t think those expectations were that crazy.

After watching them in the preseason, I feel more confident about this year’s Heat.

Dragic seems to be enjoying control of the offense, and he’s not letting it go to waste. He finished the preseason fifth in assists, shot 55% from the field, and finished at the basket at a 71% clip. He and Whiteside have connected on a few lobs, and seem genuinely happy to be together. I’m overly excited for the inevitable Whiteside/Dragic Snaps! (Is ‘Snaps’ the proper word?)

The big questions will be on the development of Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, and Justise Winslow. Now that Wade, Bosh, Luol Deng, and Joe Johnson are out of the way, the chances are there for those three to step up, but without the added pressure of having to do too much. Dragic and Whiteside can be the focal points, while the kids can find their ways. Johnson has hit it out of the park, shooting 56% from field, and 63%(!) from downtown. Of course that will come down, but he’s clearly confident enough to fire away. Even Spo has said the game has slowed down for him. Winslow feels like he’s disappointed, but he’s shooting better from three (36%) and seems to be more active on offense, as opposed to standing in the corner.

Even the bit players – Waiters, James Johnson, Willie Reed, and Derrick Williams – have all had their moments showing they could fill any gaps in the puzzle.

So is it too crazy to see what seed the Heat could get in the East, or am I getting ahead of myself?

Goldberg: With the necessary caveat of small sample sizes aside, I agree with you that this team could make a push for the playoffs this season if everything breaks right. The East is regarded as better this season, and that may be the case for the top four or five teams, but the rest of the conference has just as many question marks as the Heat.

Our suspicions of Dragic elevating his game in the new system and without handcuffs seem to be legitimized by his play. Meanwhile, Miami’s overflow of combo guards (one that concerned Heat fans before the preseason) has become a major strength for the team as they can rely on whatever hot hand emerges each night–whether it be Tyler Johnson, Waiters, Wayne Ellington, RODNEY MCGRUDER or Josh Richardson when he returns.

I’m still concerned with consistency from the power forward position as well as depth everywhere on the roster in the case of an injury. I feel that if Whiteside or Dragic miss 12-15 games combined that any chance at the playoffs will be toast.

This all reminds me of when LeBron left and the Heat were fighting for a playoff spot until the last game of the season. They weren’t able to cash in then, but it turned out to be for the best as they were able to land both Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson in the draft. The Heat have their first round pick for next summer, and I think another lottery pick will be more valuable down the road than playoff experience. What do you think?

Posada: I was mostly joking about the playoffs. But I’d say the East is actually weaker this year. I have no clue what to make of Indiana, Chicago, and New York. Washington and Milwaukee aren’t making it, and I think Charlotte is actually weaker now. I don’t think the Heat are any worse than that lumping of teams.

With that said, the Heat are walking a tightrope and, as you pointed out, any extended absences for Dragic and Whiteside would just finish this team off. Even the absolute best case scenario would have the Heat get as high as a six-seed, so it’s not like they’re set up for a deep run of any kind.

I think having their pick means they’re playing with house money. The Heat have let the word out that they want to keep Dragic to see how this season starts off, then re-evaluate if they get off to a bad start. I strongly agree with that. His value should be more than just Rudy Gay. I also think having Dragic being the one running things, while the young players fall into line behind him does more for their development than just throwing them out there and hope they figure it out. I’d say Kawhi Leonard benefited more from being drafted by the Spurs than if he had gone somewhere like Minnesota or Sacramento.

Drafts are crapshoots and nothing is guaranteed just because you have a high pick, no matter how deep a draft looks. Scouting and pure dumb luck will help make a pick successful. Besides, it’s not like this team is all-in on a playoff run (hello, Knicks!). This feels more like letting them go out there and see where the chips fall. I don’t think they have anything to lose.

Goldberg: Yeah I don’t see winning as the top priority for this team. It’s all going to be about the development of its young players (and Dragic does help with that).

Look at the Timberwolves, they won 29 games last season and everything is super excited about them. Why? A ton of young talent at important positions and another young player in Kris Dunn added to the group.

That to me is what the Heat could be. I think they win more than 29 games because (a) they play in the East and (b) they have Erik Spoelstra and not Sam Mitchell; but 35-38 wins seems right.

Heat fans have been clamoring for more home-grown talent for years–even during the Big 3 era–and they are finally getting what they want. It’s certainly exciting and, aesthetically, this team is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Am I crazy for actually looking forward to not caring so much whether or not this team wins or loses? I’m just more excited to watch the players gel and develop.

Posada: I think the template would be the Celtics of the last two years: veterans in key spots, players that fit well together, outperform expectations, great coach, good defense. This will be a learning year for the Heat, so the playoffs would just be a bonus for them. It’s about how well these young players grow and gel. Whatever they get from Waiters or Williams is a nice perk, but it’s really about the homegrown guys.

But yeah, I’m really excited for this season. It may end with 30 wins or a getting swept in the first round, and I’m ready for anything with them. I’ll be happy and frustrated at various points, but they’re moving in the right direction. This is the new era of the Miami Heat and I’m ready to see how this new stage in the franchise’s history grows.

Goldberg: And those Whiteside Snaps!