Gaining another first round pick proves to be more difficult than just trading Goran Dragic.
The passing of Thanksgiving marks the countdown to the start of what ESPN’s Marc Stein calls the league’s shopping season. It may not be considered the Black Friday of NBA deals, but December 15th is definitely its lesser-known brother. Sort of like a cyber Monday. Yet the winter date is one of the most important on the basketball calendar.
Why? Because most of the new deals signed during the offseason will become eligible to be traded, including nine out of the 10 summertime contracts that the Miami Heat agreed to.
Normally it would be a little too early to discuss trades, but the circumstances surrounding the three-time champs–losing games, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade–puts making changes into play. Pat Riley’s quote about securing another first-rounder only strengthened the talk of movement.
With that said, the assumption was that such a statement meant the end of Goran Dragic in a Miami uniform. Ira Winderman, of the Sun Sentinel, thinks that will not be the case unless the team figures out a quandary:
"“I just don’t see how the math would work unless someone like Josh Richardson or Tyler Johnson is dealt, and I’m not sure such a move makes the Heat better. I think one first-rounder (possibly a lottery pick) would be the perfect place to start when it comes to augmenting what already is in place.”"
The vision that Riley’s words painted were not as clear-cut as they came off. Winderman’s made it even cloudier.
As the Sun Sentinel reporter pointed out, adding another first round pick would be at the detriment of the time and development of one of Miami’s core young players. Mainly Tyler Johnson or Josh Richardson, because Hassan Whiteside’s pay and Justise Winslow’s lottery status have them locked into guaranteed opportunities. Dwindling the Heat’s choices down to sacrificing minutes or the roster spots of the previously mentioned guards.
Pulling that off would also be difficult.
Besides Whiteside, Johnson has been the most productive of the four young guys with his 12-point, five-rebound average. He has also been more consistent than Winslow and Richardson–shooting 43 percent from the field and 36 percent from beyond the arc with a 12.3 player impact rating–possibly raising his stock even higher.
If the Heat were willing to toss Johnson into a Dragic deal, they might be able to net a second first-round pick. The move would simultaneously work to unload the $38.5 million third and fourth years of the former D-Leaguer guard’s contract and eliminate the minutes crunch. However what looks like killing two birds with one stone is not that at all.
Because Johnson re-signed with the Heat, received a raise of at least 20 percent and had his Bird rights used due to the team being over the salary cap, the combo guard is not eligible to be traded until January 15th. And because he signed an offer sheet that was matched by his previous team, he has the ability to veto any deals involving him for the 2016-17 season.
This leaves Richardson as the only players left to package with Dragic to avoid the youth logjam, but Riley will not ransom his core unless it is for a Lamar Odom, Caron Butler like haul that gets Miami a certified star.
Therefore, fans should not get too buried in the thoughts of uniting Harry Giles, Jason Tatum, Josh Jackson or any other combination of 2017 first round picks with the team.
If Dragic finds his way out of Miami, it will be to either bring in players that can help during the season or to create space for the team to attack an offseason class that is not as deep as it looked a few months ago. In return, their lone draft pick already on its way to being in the lottery will not negatively affect the future of the Heat core.