To tank or not to tank? That is the Miami Heat’s question
By Chris Posada
The Miami Heat have finished their first month of the season and now everything is fire and depression. Any irrational confidence fans might have had about this team has gone away, replaced with a grim and dreadful reality. With the Heat off to a bad start, is it time to think about tanking, or trying to make the most of it? All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada go down the rabbit hole.
Wes Goldberg: If I were to do a guestimated ranking of ESPN trade machine power users, it would probably be something like…
- Celtics fans
- Kings fans
- 76ers fans
- Heat fans
Miami’s core is flawed, and it’s path to rebuilding isn’t very clear. Their cabinet is bare of assets–unless they want to start moving dudes like Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson–and the only thing of real value they have is its pick in the upcoming draft. The Heat should be picking in the lottery regardless of if they go completely in tank, but the right young player could turn this franchise around.
So back to the trade machine. The difference between whatever the Heat are doing now and tanking is trading away some of its better players for value now. Trading Goran Dragic would be a white flag. Trading Hassan Whiteside for a treasure chest would be absolutely Hinkiean.
So, Chris, should the Heat tank, and what does that look like to you?
Chris Posada: I don’t think Dragic is finishing the year with the Heat, regardless of whether there’s a turnaround or not. Coming into this season, it felt like he was going to be used as a stopgap for Johnson and Richardson (and, to a lesser extant, Briante Weber) while they figured out how to run an offense. Plus showcasing Dragic to build up his value was probably Plan B, just behind “Let’s see what this team can do”. Feels like we’re pretty much there.
I think Whiteside has more long-term value to the Heat. But if a offer that restocks the cupboard is made, Pat Riley would be crazy to turn that down. We probably have at least one more calendar year before dealing him is an option.
But, to me, the concept of “tanking” seems so lazy. When I think of it, it’s basically being purposely bad and being rewarded for that ineptitude. It’s like waiting for a handout and expecting it to be the magic elixir.
Are the Heat bad? Sure. But should they just phone it in? Of course not. Considering Winslow, Richardson, Johnson, and even Rodney McGruder are young pieces Riley would want to take a long look at, tanking could be something that damages them. Let them roll out there and play to their strengths, while hopefully developing some new ones along the way. Even Whiteside could grow into his new role as a primary option on offense. If they happen to win some games along the way, then so be it. But rooting for losses at their expense is counterproductive to their progress.
Where do you stand on this, Wes?
Goldberg: The question about whether or not fans should be rooting for losses, to me, is entirely irrelevant and arguing about it doesn’t make a difference. I don’t care who cheers for what. It’s been such a tough few years for Heat fans, with more talent leaving than coming in, the face of franchise decidedly walking away, people deal in different ways and if by rooting for losses (embracing “The Process”) is what gives them hope then who am I to judge?
I do think we overrate what tanking means. The Heat are going to be bad. Regardless of if it’s on purpose or by accident. It’s not as if this team is going to miss the playoffs on purpose. They’re destined for the lottery. When you and I talk about tanking, the difference is going to be a few games in the last couple of weeks that could result in a top-three pick as opposed to a top-five-or-seven pick.
I do think that’s worth considering, and if Pat Riley has seen enough I can see him throwing in the towel. A Dragic trade–or any trade, really–won’t be made in order to tank, but rather to re-stock assets. There’s a difference.
Posada: In fairness, you asked whether I think if they should tank. I think you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t. While bad, they’re not the Sixers of the last few years trying to be bad for the shot at getting the first overall pick. It’s a bad mentality to put on a franchise. Considering the Heat have players they believe in, they owe it to them to let the results play out.
With that said, I think the towel has already been thrown – Winslow and Richardson are being treated with kid gloves with their injuries, while losing Dion Waiters takes some punch out of an otherwise punchless lineup – so I’m sure decisions are being made about where to send Dragic and for what. The win at Denver was more about the Nuggets being bad, but it’s a feather in the Heat’s cap, as was Thursday’s win in Utah. Maybe Wayne Ellington shoots lights out the next month and can be shipped off for a second round pick or something. Maybe Josh McRoberts can….sorry, I can’t get through that sentence without laughing.
But even the Heat will have to consider the good/bad of playing for draft positioning. If this group somehow dumb lucks their way to say 35 wins, and end up 7th or 8th, I think that’s fine. The important thing right now is developing the young players they do have and see where they fit in the overall puzzle. Pull them the final two weeks of the year if you think that will help. But these next few months are about these players finding their way.
I also have no idea who’s good in the draft, and I don’t really care for College Basketball. Is there anyone you think would be a good fit in a way-too-early-Heat-draft-profile?
Goldberg: Well to go back to your point about development: a silver lining so far this season is that a bunch of these games have been close. Miami’s young players are learning a ton from these games (like what not to do when trying to close) and guys like Richardson and Tyler Johnson and Whiteside are having opportunities to take big shots. That’s huge.
Plus, even if it were possible to make the playoffs, it’s not as if this team doesn’t already have playoff experience. Richardson, Winslow and Johnson were on the team last season that was a game away from making the Eastern Conference finals. They’ve got the taste and experience already and can afford a year away from it.
I don’t think dumb lucking there way to a pointless 35 wins and ending up with a back-half lottery pick would be fine. This team needs a super star and it’s harder to find those guys at no. 8 and no. 9 than it is with no. 1 or no. 2. The Heat have built a strong enough culture to withstand that. That–partly–is why you build a culture. So you can have a bad season and not become a bad franchise.
But as far as who is good in this draft, I’m with you. I don’t watch enough college basketball to know who I like. Far too much NBA for me to watch. I’ll tune in in March and start to form an opinion, but until then I’ll let the smart people at DraftExpress tell me who is good. There’s supposed to be some great point guards in this draft. The big boards will change and who knows where the Heat will end up picking. I think the more interesting question is: What do the Heat even need?
Posada: Oh, I don’t think this team is making the playoffs. If they somehow ended up getting there, then the future is really bright. Them just competing and going through these growing pains is an experience unto itself. Again, if they develop and prove that they’re going to be mainstays for the Heat while still coming up short in games and end up in the top-five, then that’s the best case scenario in the long run.
It would be nice to be picking in the top half of the lottery, but drafts are such a crapshoot that anything can happen, especially in a draft that is considered really deep. Guys will fall (Steph Curry, Kobe Bryant), or they find themselves in a situation that allows them to develop in ways that weren’t expected. Forget for a moment that Kawhi Leonard was drafted 15th, but think about how different his career path would have taken if he *weren’t* drafted by the Spurs. To your point, culture matters. That’s why I’m fine with wherever the Heat land. Yes, the likelihood of getting a star early is going to be higher. But it’s not the end of the world if you’re not picking in the top-five.
With Dragic likely gone, a pure point guard would be a must, or someone that’s a natural scorer at the wing. But the Heat also have also depth on the front line, so a big would be useful, especially one that can stretch the floor. Miami could use an heir-apparent to Chris Bosh.
Maybe I’m just stubborn.
Goldberg: I know I set you up for this question, but it got me thinking and I hope the Heat don’t worry too much about fit or need.
Remember when they drafted Dwyane Wade? They had Eddie Jones and didn’t need a shooting guard. They needed a center, and Chris Kaman was on the board. The Heat took the better player and even though Wade played out of position his first year, I would say it worked out nicely.
Instead, I would look at what succeeds in the league today. Shooting. Size. Versatility. Draft someone like that, and I don’t think the Heat can be wrong. Someone with an alpha-dog personality a la Damian Lillard would be great, too. If it’s a point guard, maybe they trade Dragic during the draft (if he’s not dealt sooner). If it’s someone else, well, now they have options.
The Big Three era Heat had a ton of talent, and it didn’t quite fit together at first but they figured it out. Miami is short on talent and need to acquire as much as possible, then figure it out later. Realistically, I think this team is a few years away from being competitive and should treat it as such. Whether that means loading up on young players and developing that talent, or trading away its current crop of youngsters to get that window closer.
Posada: In fairness, Wade made sense because Eddie Jones had a finite amount of time remaining (he was already 32), so prepping for the future at that position was wise. But yes, the Heat did want size – they originally tried to tank the last game of the 2002-03 season against Toronto to get Chris Bosh; Heat ended up winning and got a consolation prize – and Kaman may have likely been the choice.
I agree with taking the best player available, but if you have needs and there’s a player available to fill them, do it. Good news (or bad news) is that the Heat will have a lot of needs to fill, so they don’t need to be picky. Especially if there’s a Dwyane Wade on the board.
Goldberg: As we learned the last time, if there’s a Dwyane Wade on the board, obviously a player like that can solve a franchise for years. We can only hope to get so lucky, and that Pat Riley–like he did in 2003–is able to spot him.