Miami Heat Mailbag: I thought the Heat were supposed to be tanking edition
By Wes Goldberg
Will the Miami Heat’s win streak cost them a future franchise player? Should Pat Riley trade Goran Dragic for Carmelo Anthony? And what about some non-point guard draft prospects?
I never thought this would happen this season. The Miami Heat have won seven-straight games, and fans are freaking out. A win against the Golden State Warriors went from a memory fans could hold on to as this team continued to plummet into the top of the draft lottery to something that galvanized the team. Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic are playing like one of the best backcourts in the Eastern Conference, and the Heat are becoming less and less reliant on Hassan Whiteside (and that’s a good thing). If you were on the fence about whether or not the Heat should go Full Tank Mode, this recent bout of winning brought out your true feelings.
You can send future mailbag questions to LockedOnHeat@gmail.com. Thanks to those of you who have sent questions. In addition to answering them on the podcast, I’ll answer them in this weekly column.
Q: What’s this win streak give us? The standings are too close. We should have tanked. You guys, and many others, thought the team was bad enough to just lose. Now do you agree it’s tank time? – George Coles
Q: This draft class is projected to be one of the NBA’s deepest draft classes since 2003, so why are the Heat winning all of a sudden? In 2015 we had a better roster and didn’t mind losing a few games and fighting for a lottery pick, and even then we ended up with the No. 10 pick. Now that we have a chance to end up with a top-three pick, we go on a seven-game winning streak and allow other teams to leapfrog us in this draft. Please provide some clarity with what the Heat are doing because I’m honestly confused, I don’t know whether it’s because of the trade deadline, or maybe just the fact that I’m just overreacting, but I’m not sure why the Heat are suddenly winning? I was really looking forward to buying a Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball Heat jersey sometime after the draft – Jean
Q: How can you explain this win streak? Have the Heat turned it around? – Douglas Philip Yee
WG: Guys, guys, guys! Everything will be okay! The Heat will get back to losing games sooner or later. Every team has a moment. The Lakers had their moment early. The Philadelphia 76ers are 10-4 since December 30. The Heat have won seven straight games. It happens.
[Thinking]
But… I mean. What if this team is actually good?
Look, there were seven new players on this team at the beginning of the season, and that doesn’t include the recent addition of Okaro White. That’s eight new players. Minus the team’s two best players–Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh–from a season ago. Plus oodles of injuries that have forced Erik Spoelstra to mix and match lineups all season. Maybe, just maybe, this team needed time to gel.
It’s entirely possible that a team with Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, a top-five NBA coach and a bunch of players playing for their jobs isn’t as bad they were through the first two months of the season. Dion Waiters is playing out of his mind, sure, but it’s not as if this guy wasn’t any good. He played great for the Thunder in last season’s playoffs. He’s a former No. 4 overall pick, and just 25 years old. Jimmy Butler had his breakout season at 25 years old. Just sayin’.
So, what is the point of this winning streak? I’m not sure, to be honest. I’ve felt myself getting slightly frustrated when looking at tankathon.com, where the Heat have gone from a projected No. 2 overall pick to the No. 6 pick. Their 20 percent chance at getting the top pick is now 7.5 percent. Objectively, I know the Heat should be losing. But when I’m watching the games it’s just so darn fun!
Jean, I’m with you, I was looking forward to seeing Fultz or Ball in a Heat jersey. But luckily this draft is deep. Super deep. Miami should be able to come away with a franchise player and, hey, if this team is actually good, they may not need the long rebuild we thought they did. That’s a positive, right?
Q: I know it sounds nuts but what about Dion back to Cleveland for their first-round pick (it’s nearly a second-round pick, given they will be in the Finals). LeBron has been complaining about adding a “playmaker” and Dion knows the organization. – George Coles
WG: It’s not a bad idea. But for this to happen, Pat Riley would have to come to three conclusions:
- Waiters is too good for tanking
- The Heat need to tank
- Waiters isn’t going to re-sign with the Heat this summer, or Riley doesn’t want him to
If Riley confirms these three things, then it’s best to trade Waiters. Flipping Waiters–a player no one wanted this summer–for a first round pick would be a genius move on Riley’s part.
On the other hand, after losing Wade and Bosh, and with Waiters playing so well that he can proclaim “this is my city” and get away with it, can the Heat afford to willingly give up Waiters from a PR standpoint? The fans are happy, and trading Waiters would be trading away their favorite new toy.
As we saw last season when the team wasn’t sure if Whiteside was a franchise player, the Heat tend to wait these things out until the offseason.
Q: Wes and David, love your podcast.
WG: Hey, thanks!
Doesn’t it make sense for Riley to at least probe the Knicks about a Melo-for-Dragic trade? The Knicks clearly want to part with him and I don’t see another team offering a player of Dragic’s caliber for him. I guarantee Melo would waive his clause to play in Miami. The Knicks reunite Dragic with Hornacek, plus they don’t have to max Derrick Rose this summer. Brandon Jennings is also a free agent so they could end up with no point guard. For the Heat, Melo’s money would essentially take the place of Bosh’s. Chris Paul is Melo’s best bud plus Dwyane Wade doesn’t seem too happy in Chicago, and might be willing to join Melo in Miami. We know Riley lives for trades like these. – Jacquez Leandre
Q: How about Miami holds off until the offseason to trade Goran and something else minor for Carmelo, and then Wade comes back. Then draft one of the top guards and sign another marquee free agent. – Kenaz Sweat
WG: Carmelo Anthony is a big name, but here’s the thing: I’m not sure he’s better than Dragic.
Player A: 19.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 4.0 RPG and shooting clips of 47%-41%-79%
Player B: 22.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, 6.1 RPG and shooting clips of 43%-37%-83%
Player A is Dragic, and Player B is Anthony. Dragic is a more efficient shooter and playmaker, plus he rates better defensively than Anthony. It’s close, sure, but consider the fact the Anthony will be making almost $10 million more per season than Dragic and it’s not even close who the better value is. I’ll frame it this way: Would you rather have Anthony, or Dragic plus a player at $10 million per season?
I get betting big on the Banana Boat gang getting together in South Beach. Let’s think about what that team would look like: Chris Paul (max deal), Dwyane Wade (would have to accept less than the max to return), Anthony (max deal), Justise Winslow at power forward and Willie Reed at center (the Heat would have to trade Whiteside to make room for everyone).
On paper it seems great, but Paul is dealing with injury issues, Wade isn’t getting any younger and Anthony doesn’t play defense. That team is top heavy, and still not as good as LeBron’s Cavs with an even smaller window.
In other words, the Heat shouldn’t do what the Brooklyn Nets did in 2013 and trade the future away for an aging trio of veterans.
Q: What are your thoughts on a Nikola Mirotic swap for Derrick Williams and Luke Babbitt? Mirotic signed a 3 year, $16.6 million contract with the Chicago Bulls, all of which is guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $5,543,725. Williams and Babbitt’s expiring deals work as far as matching salary. – Big Pat
WG: And the Bulls have 14 players on the roster, so they could afford to do a 1-for-2, especially if they want to get out from under Mirotic’s salary. It’s not a bad idea for the Bulls.
For the Heat, they would be taking on another long-term deal, but if they believe they can get more out of Mirotic than Chicago it might not be bad. He’s shown flashes of stretch-4 potential.
Plus, the Heat could clear a permanent roster spot for Okaro White, whose on his second and final 10-day contract. Look, I don’t hate it, but we know Riley resists adding long-term deals during rebuilding years. It won’t happen, and it’s probably not worth the roster spot.
Q: I know that you are very high on Miami trying to land one of the top PG prospects in the draft like Fultz or Ball, but should Miami perhaps take a strategy where they look at players who might have the biggest upside? After using way too much of my free time watching the top 2017 draft prospects I actually believe Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac might have the highest ceiling out of anyone in this year’s draft. His first years in the league may be a struggle for him, but given how excellent Miami is at player development Isaac could end up as a 6-foot-10 superstar scorer much like Kevin Durant and an MVP caliber player. Thougths? – Alex, your Swedish representation of Waiters’ peninsula.
WG: Thank you, mister Representative. You’re speaking my language (okay, my language is English, and I’m not sure what you speak in Sweden. You know what I mean.), I’ve also been watching a ton of college hoops for the same reason. The Heat are going to get one of these top guys, and Jonathan Isaac is fourth on my personal draft board.
- Fultz
- A huge gap
- Ball
- Isaac
He’s long as hell–wiry like a young Giannis–super athletic and versatile and the idea of him alongside Winslow as a pair of switchy forwards is a lot of fun. Is he a future Durant? I don’t know, and I hate to put those expectations on him, but he does look and play like the future the NBA is heading to.
Isaac might have the second-highest ceiling of anyone in the draft, just behind Fultz, and if the Heat don’t end up taking a point guard than Isaac is my guy. AllUCanHeat.com’s Frank Urbina did a write up on Isaac that I recommend.
Q: Looking to this offseason, at what point can the Heat actually make the trade for CJ McCollum if the Blazers are interested, because if Willie Reed keeps playing this well I think you could get away with him at center. – Chris Leach
WG: Reed has really come along recently, his rim protection numbers are comparable and he plays better in space than Whiteside. Riley has to ask himself if re-signing Reed to $10 million per season and trading Whiteside is a more cost-effective plan. If the Heat want to rebuild a small ball, up-tempo unit, trading Whiteside makes sense. Especially if they plan to go small at the end of games without a center on the floor.
As for McCollum, you know I’m all in on the idea. It might also involve trading Dragic and doubling down on going young. The Heat would have to wait until the new NBA year before making that trade, due to the poison pill stuff we covered in a recent mailbag, so basically we’re looking at a draft-day trade or right after.
Next: Dragic continues stellar play in 7th-straight win
But before deciding on a deal, Riley first has to conclude that trading Whiteside is the right move. Basically, if he can pay Reed 40 percent of what Whiteside is making, can he get more than 40 percent of Whiteside provides?