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Miami Heat: Some stats behind Dion Waiters’ resurgence

By Michael Brock

Jan 28, 2017; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters (11) reacts after guard Wayne Ellington (not pictured) made a three point basket against the Detroit Pistons during the second half at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 116-103. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 28, 2017; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters (11) reacts after guard Wayne Ellington (not pictured) made a three point basket against the Detroit Pistons during the second half at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 116-103. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dion Waiters is a big reason why the Miami Heat are rolling, but has he turned around his career? We dive into some key stats.

The Miami Heat are riding a 13-game winning streak and Dion Waiters is playing the best basketball of his career. He is averaging 20 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists during the streak. For the season he is now averaging 15.5 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists.

So what should we make of it? Is this just a hot streak? Or is Waiters now a player the Heat should consider staking their future in?

Read More: Heat’s winning streak more than just numbers

To get a better sense of Waiters’ production this season though, lets take a deeper look into Waiters’ advanced statistics for his career.

Basketball Reference has a fancy NBA stat called usage percentage, which is pretty much the percentage of plays each player is involved in while he is on the floor.

This is Waiters’ Usage Percentage in his first five seasons:

  • ’12-’13: 26.1%
  • ’13-’14: 26.9%
  • ’14-’15: 22.5%
  • ’15-’16: 17.7%
  • ’16-’17 : 26.1%

In his first two seasons, Waiters averaged 15.3 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3 assists, according to Basketball Reference.

Looking at usage, it makes sense that Waiters’ best seasons have been when he sees the ball more. But this season is statistically comparable to his first two seasons in Cleveland in more ways than that.

Waiters’ PER (Player Efficiency Rating), according to Basketball Reference:

  • ’12-’13: 13.7
  • ’13-’14: 14.0
  • ’14-’15: 10.9
  • ’15-’16: 9.4
  • ’16-’17: 13.8

And True Shooting Percentage (factoring in 3’s and free throws):

  • ’12-’13: 49.2%
  • ’13-’14: 50.8%
  • ’14-’15: 46%
  • ’15-’16: 49.2%
  • ’16-’17: 49.8%

Noticing a trend?

Waiters’ first two seasons and this one are comparable, and a big reason for that is his increased usage.

But this season has been his best for one reason: Waiters is averaging a career-high 4.1 assists.

His Assist % (Percentage of field goals assisted on while on floor) by season:

  • ’12-’13: 18.4%
  • ’13-’14: 18.2%
  • ’14-’15: 11.9%
  • ’15-’16: 10%
  • ’16-’17: 22.8%

There’s no question Waiters is getting his teammates more involved this season. And that’s a positive for the Heat:

Waiters has a unique combination of athleticism and quickness, which makes him a reliable defender, in addition to a steady driver and shooter.

This season, he has been one of the more reliable back-court defenders in the East. At 103.7, the Heat have the sixth best defensive rating in the NBA and the defense of Waiters has been a big reason for that.

All around Waiters is just making plays. Like this one, where he blocks the shot, then after the Heat miss, he steals the ball and lays in back in.

There’s a chance this Dion Waiters experience is for real. And I’m all in. As each game passes, I’m more and more convinced that the 25-year-old Waiters just needed time to mature.

Next: Heat's player development among the NBA's best

Waiters’ numbers are back up this season, partly because he has the ball in his hands more. If this is a turnaround and not just a flash in the pan, Waiters will at least be a serviceable 2-guard in this league. Now it’s up to Pat Riley if his services remain in Miami.

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