The underrated Heat are too good to tank

The Miami Heat can’t tank. They’re too good. They have four players who could easily be all stars or sixth men of the year.

They say all good things come in pairs. You know, like Batman and Robin, socks and mittens, or two-for-one specials at happy hour. In the case of the Miami Heat, they have a pair of could-have-been all stars and a pair of could-be sixth men of the year.

You might be wondering what I’m talking about. You might argue that the Heat didn’t have a single all star this year, much less two. And others have quickly checked the history books and will tell me in the entire 30 year history of the franchise, no Heat player has ever won sixth man of the year. Well…

Below are statistics for two players. They play the same position. One is an all star, and one isn’t. Guess which one is which?

Player A: 12.7 points, 13.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks
Player B: 16.7 points, 14.1 rebounds, 2.1 blocks

You’d be smart to assume player B was the all star. You’d be technically wrong. Player A is Deandre Jordan, a 2016-17 all star. Player B is Hassan Whiteside, who didn’t make the all-star team in the East. As Whiteside noted, “[Jordan] just catches lobs.” Whiteside not only catches lobs, he also has a nifty mid-range jumper, leads the league in rebounds, is fourth in blocks, and sixth in double doubles. He bests Jordan in all those categories.

Let’s compare another all star with a player on the Heat. Both play the same position. Guess which one is which?

Player A: 20.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 42.8 3P%, 54.0 eFG%
Player B: 24.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 38.8 3P%, 52.5 eFG%

In this case you’d have a hard time choosing the all-star. While Player B scores more points, player A is the superior playmaker and more efficient scorer. The two players are playing at nearly a comparable level. Player B is Kyrie Irving, a 2016-17 all star. Player A is Goran Dragic.

Dragic is one of only eight players averaging at least 20 points, 6 assists and 3 rebounds. Six of the eight are all stars. In addition, Dragic is shooting better from three than Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Eric Gordon — the last three winners of the three point shooting challenge.

https://twitter.com/youngwhiteside/status/828813007908171776

While the sixth man of the year hasn’t been chosen, it’s unlikely any Heat player will win. Still, let’s look at three players and guess which was the sixth man of the year.

Player A: 12.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, PER 16.6, VORP 1.6
Player B: 13.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, PER 15.8, VORP 1.4
Player C: 14.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, PER 14.0, VORP -0.3

It’s hard to pick just using the traditional statistics (points, rebounds, and assists). Player C scores more points, but players A and B seem to have better all around games. The advanced metrics (PER and VORP) make the choice a little easier. Player A leads, although player B is not far behind.

What stands out, based on the combination of PER and VORP, is that Player C is likely a defensive liability. Player C was 2016-17 sixth man of the year Jamal Crawford. Player A is James Johnson and Player B is Tyler Johnson.

Clearly, the Heat struggled in the first half of the season. But, the Big Three struggled their first year too. Remember, they started 9-8 before going on a 12 game winning streak. It took this year’s team a little longer, going 11-30 before going on a 13 game winning streak.

Next: Tyler Johnson has found his groove again

But, with two should-have-been all stars and two could-be sixth men of the year, it was only a matter of time before this Heat team started winning. They’re just too good to tank.