Breaking down the Miami Heat’s remaining schedule

The race for the NBA Playoffs is heating up, so we take a look at the Miami Heat’s remaining schedule to surmise their chances of qualifying.

With 45 days left until the 2017 NBA Playoffs, the race in the Eastern Conference is getting tight. The Miami Heat, after battling back from an 11-30 start, sit just one game out of the coveted eighth seed with a 28-33 record.

Currently occupying the final spot for playoff qualification in the East are the Detroit Pistons, who have improved their play of late. Though they’re 29-32 overall, they have been victorious in six of their last 10 games.

Furthermore, the Heat are just two games back of the seven-seed Chicago Bulls, who are 6-4 over their last 10.

Not only is a playoff berth possible for Miami, but a seed as high as sixth isn’t out of the question.

John Schuhmann of NBA.com wrote a piece breaking down the remaining schedules for the Eastern Conference playoff contenders (as of Mar. 2). In it, he appears to favor the Heat’s chances. In his own words:

"The Miami Heat may be in the best position to take a playoff spot from the Chicago Bulls (30-30) or Detroit Pistons (29-31).The Heat will play 13 of their remaining 22 games at home, where they’ve won nine of their last 10. Nine of their next 12 games are at AmericanAirlines Arena. Miami also has six games remaining where they’ll have a rest advantage (with their opponent playing the second game of a back-to-back. They have just three games remaining with a rest disadvantage (where they’re playing the second game of a back-to-back against a rested opponent)."

I recommend you read the whole thing, as it provides in-depth analysis of the playoff race in both conferences.

But for our purposes, we’re going to take his Heat analysis a step further, and break down the team’s final 21 games.

Most dangerous games remaining

When somebody asks me if I’d rather hear good news or bad news first (no one ever asks me that), I always go bad news. So we start our breakdown with Miami’s toughest games remaining. We rank them as follow:

1. Mar. 6 — @ Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Mar. 4 — Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Mar. 26 — @ Boston Celtics
4. Apr. 10 — @ Washington Wizards
5. Apr. 7 — @ Toronto Raptors

If you want to look at the bright side, at least the Heat get two of their hardest games out of the way this weekend. Earn a split against Cleveland and the outlook for the rest of the season gets a bit rosier.

Mar. 26’s matchup in Boston won’t be easy because they’ll be playing for the one-seed. As of Mar. 2, they’re just three games back of the Cavs. Plus, the Celtics give the Heat trouble every time they play. The teams have faced off three times this season, with Boston taking all three by an average of seven points.

Afterwards, there’s Apr. 10 at Washington, which admittedly may be a little too low. The Wizards are 25-8 at home, one of the NBA’s best marks. They also just added three-point specialist Bojan Bogdanovic, and explosive lead-guard Brandon Jennings to their previously weak bench. Those acquisitions will help John Wall and Bradley Beal take Washington to new heights.

Finally, Apr. 7 at Toronto presents problems because the Raptors should have All-NBA point guard Kyle Lowry (wrist) back by then. Moreover, as the current four-seed, they’ll be playing to keep home-court advantage, as only the top-four seeds in each conference earn that right.

Must-Wins

Now that we have the hard games out of the way, let’s talk about the easy ones. You can also call these must-wins, since — for a team in the thick of a playoff hunt like Miami — it would be costly to drop any of them.

1. Mar. 21 — Phoenix Suns
2. Mar. 3 — @ Orlando Magic
3. Mar. 31 — New York Knicks
4. Mar. 15 — New Orleans Pelicans
5. April 10 — Cleveland Cavaliers

The Suns are 18-42 (second-worst record in the league) and very clearly tanking. Yes, I know people love to nitpick whether a team is tanking or just bad, but in this case, it’s the former. The Suns have benched veterans Brandon Knight and Tyson Chandler (three straight DNP-CD’s for each) in favor of less experienced young guys.

Next we have Miami at Orlando. The Heat face the Magic on Mar. 3, just before their back-to-back against the Cavs. It’s a must-win, or you risk the chance of losing three straight. The Magic are currently 22-39, while boasting the second-worst offense league-wide (according to offensive-rating).

Mar. 31 against New York is ascertainable because by then, the Knicks will surely have closed up shop. I know, for now they’re claiming their goal is to make the playoffs. But they’re 25-36, losers in seven of their last 10. Excuse me if I’m not buying it. Tanking would be the smart way to go for them, anyways.

And in closing, the Pelicans are 1-3 with Demarcus Cousins on their team, the one win coming in a game he sat out. Additionally, Apr. 10 against Cleveland is the second-to-last game of the season. As Schuhmann also pointed out, the Cavs’ Big Three will more than likely be resting. (If they aren’t, I’ll return to remove them from this section, I promise.)

Prediction

My prediction is Miami finishes the rest of the season 13-8, would give them a 41-41 record for the year and the eighth seed in the East.

The games they drop will be:

• Both against the Cavs
• At the Indiana Pacers on Mar. 12
• At home against the Raptors on Mar. 23
• At Boston on Mar. 26
• At the Knicks on Mar. 29
• At Toronto on Apr. 7
• And finally, at Washington the following day.

The only game I went out on a limb in predicting a loss was the Mar. 26 matchup against New York. But I did so because it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Heat. The night before, they’re in Detroit, which is always grueling.

Finishing at .500 and making the playoffs after starting 11-30 would be an incredible feat. That’d mean Miami went 30-11 to close the season; that’s a 73 percent win-rate — an even better pace than the Cavs are on right now.

Not to mention, after a likely first round defeat (sorry, but that’s probably going to be our fate), the Heat will still have a first-round pick in the late teens. Meaning fans of the tank, and those who prefer to trust in Riley no matter what, will both find satisfaction.

Next: What makes Miami's defense so good?

If everything I just mentioned does happen, and it’s not good enough to earn Erik Spoelstra his first Coach of the Year award, then we should all write commissioner Adam Silver very strongly-worded letters stating our disdain.

After all, it would make this season, bar none, Spoelstra’s most impressive coaching job to date. Championship years be damned.