Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters are the Miami Heat’s power couple
By Wes Goldberg
Some advanced stats show how impactful the Miami Heat’s backcourt duo is.
The Miami Heat’s recent string of success isn’t only impressive, it’s also repeatable. Parts of it. The Heat rise and fall with Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters. That is, the team’s stats rise when both are on the floor together, and fall when they are not.
The Heat score roughly 1.12 points per possession when both Dragic and Waiters are on the floor, but just 1.00 points per possession when they are not. That may not seem like a lot, but that’s a 12-point difference over the course of 100 possessions.
That’s because the team is shooting better with Dragic and Waiters on the court, with a true shooting percentage of 56 percent and a red-hot 43.8 percent from three-point range.* When they are off the floor, those percentages drop to 50.2 and 32.8 percent respectively. That’s an 11 percent dip in three-point shooting when they aren’t on the floor!
*For comparison, the Warriors shoot 40.9 percent from three-point range when Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are on the floor together. That’s likely because it’s Curry and Thompson taking most of the three’s, some of which are contested, while Dragic and Waiters are mostly generating open three’s for teammates.
Dragic and Waiters are the efficient and repeatable part of Miami’s success. Both are world class at getting to the rim, and doing that bends the defense inward, providing room for shooters to get open, and for Dragic or Waiters to kick it out to them. The three is the most efficient shot in basketball, and the Heat average 0.111 three-point attempts per possession when Dragic and Waiters are on the floor together, and just 0.084 when they aren’t.
Next: Breaking down the Heat's remaining schedule
The Heat have plenty of roster problems, but generating open looks when these two are on the floor isn’t one of them.
While the Heat will be able to ride this success throughout the rest of the season, the problem is that Waiters becomes a free agent this summer. After averaging career highs in points, assists and rebounds, Waiters will be a wanted man on the open market. If the Heat want to get back the repeatable part of its success, they’ll have to step up and pay Waiters.
All on/off court stats courtesy of NBAwowy.com.