Mailbag: What does the Heat’s win over the Cavaliers mean?

The Miami Heat’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers has fans wondering just how deep could this team go if they make the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Mar 6, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters (11) drives to the basket against Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) during the first quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 6, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; Miami Heat guard Dion Waiters (11) drives to the basket against Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) during the first quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

You can send future mailbag questions to LockedOnHeat@gmail.com. Thanks to those of you who have sent questions. In addition to answering them on the podcast with my co-host David Ramil, I’ll answer them in this weekly column. Let’s do it.

If the Heat get that no. 8 seed, I think they could make it a tough series with the Cavs. They could definitely win a game or two. – Douglas Philip Yee

Let me put this half-burnt Cavaliers LeBron jersey on and finish this fried Twinkie as I try to approach this from a Cavs fan perspective. What would a Cavs fan say about Miami’s win?

“Tyronn Lue was out sick. Yeah, no, he’s our head coach. No no no, LeBron isn’t the coach, that’s Ty. No, for real. Yeah. Tyronn Lue. Yeah…that’s right, the guy Allen Iverson stepped over. He’s for real the head coach. No, David Blatt got fired a year ago. Lue was the coach when we won the title. NO, LEBRON ISN’T THE COACH.”

“Also Kevin Love was out.”

“I mean, I guess you could compare that to Chris Bosh being out the entire season. Or all of the other injuries the Heat have had, but Cleveland has no depth, man.”

“Yeah, I mean we signed Deron Williams, who is one of the three best backup point guards in the league, but he’s no Dellavedova. Sure, we wasted money on Andrew Bogut knowing full well that he hasn’t been healthy in two years, but how is that our fault?”

“Huh? Who is Willie Reed, Rodney McGruder and Okaro White? Never heard of them.”

“Look, you got lucky. That’s all. I’ll let the ringz speak for themselves.”

“Wait, what? Miami has that many titles? I had no idea, I just started watching basketball in 2014. I’m mostly a Browns fan.”

Annnnnnnd scene.

The truth is, Miami isn’t as good as Cleveland. They aren’t as talented. LeBron and Kyrie will be the best players on the court in a potential series against the Heat. But Miami really likes beating Cleveland, and that’s worth a win. If the Heat get the eighth seed and face Cleveland in the first round, it won’t be a sweep. There are too many emotions and varying sources of motivation.

Miami can’t possibly win the series, but it’ll be fun as hell to watch Dion Waiters try.

I think the Heat are the fourth best team in the East (as long as Kyle Lowry is out for the Raptors). I like our experience more than the Wizards and if we could draw a seventh seed, get an upset playoff series win against the Celtics, now you are probably looking at the Wizards who have been playing well, but playoff experience has to be a factor. Other than some depth I don’t think the Celtics and Heat rosters are all that different and, besides, rotations thin in the playoffs so the depth doesn’t hurt us as bad. I also like Spo more than Stevens. I’m not saying I’d pick Miami in an upset, but with the way this team is playing I’m not that afraid of Boston or Washington. – Taylor Monk

The NBA expanded the playoffs from six to eight teams in 1982. Here’s a list of no. 8 seeds that have upset no. 1 seeds in the playoffs: The 1993-94 Nuggets beat the SuperSonics; 1998-99 Knicks beating the no. 1 seeded Heat (lockout shortened season, doesn’t really count); 2006-07 “We Believe” Warriors team beat the Mavericks; 2010-11 Grizzlies knocked off the Spurs; 2011-12 76ers beat the Bulls (after Derrick Rose tore his ACL, doesn’t really count).

Here’s a list of no. 7 seeds that have beaten no. 2 seeds in the playoffs: The 1986-87 SuperSonics beat the Mavericks; the 1988-89 Warriors beat the Jazz; the 1990-91 “Run TMC” Warriors beat the Spurs; 1997-98 Knicks beat the Heat.

Here’s a list of no. 7 or no. 8 seeds that have advanced to the conference finals: The no. 7 seeded SuperSonics in 1987 and the no. 8 seeded Knicks in 1999 (lockout shortened season, doesn’t really count).

Only nine seven or eight seeds have ever advanced, and only seven actually counted (sorry not sorry Knicks and 76ers). In other words: The odds are slim.

But, man, this Heat team is special. It’s an anomaly. Longest win streak ever by a sub-.500 team. Could somehow make the playoffs after starting 11-30. The Heat, right now, are one of the best five teams in the East. Why couldn’t they win a playoff series if they got the seventh seed? Is it any more crazy than any of those other upsets?

I was at the Cleveland-Miami game in Cleveland and it was so fun to watch this Heat group live. The way that Waiters and Reed play had me thinking: If you clear Bosh’s salary off the books, why not divvy up his pay three ways and use that to keep Waiters, Johnson and Reed. I mean, this group has it clicking. We’re not a Finals team but I still don’t think until LeBron gets hurt or retires that it will matter anyway. So why not ride this group out as long as they play defense and are fun to watch? As a fan, I don’t want to see them lose every game for a draft pick. I’m fine having a fun enjoyable (competitive) season to watch and maybe we get to the second round and have some fun in May for the next few years. – Billy Kuhn

I’m with you, Billy. This has been fun. Let’s keep it going.

Pat Riley likes to talk about “the karma of basketball.” He wants to maintain that, maintain the team’s culture and identity. More so than anything else, Riley wants to win more often than he loses. This, I believe, is more important even than winning titles.

If Riley sees this roster as one that could win 45 games a season, I think he keeps it together, and waits to pounce on the opportunity should a championship-window opening player become available.