Playoffs??? The Miami Heat are talking playoffs?

The Miami Heat are in position to make the playoffs after an unlikely run of wins, but can they dream even bigger than being eliminated in the first round? All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada chat about this and more.

Chris Posada: *Awakens from a coma since January 1st*

“As the NCAA Tournament heads into this weekend’s Sweet 16, the Miami Heat can get a look at top prospects like UCLA’s Lonzo Ball in hopes of bringing themselves back up as a perennial playoff contender.

Wait, what’s that? I’m sorry, the Heat’s record is what?”

The Heat have gone from scouting draft prospects to breaking down playoff scenarios, all in the span of two months. It really is extraordinary. I’m as anti-tanking as they come, but even I had images of the tank from Master P’s “Make’em Say Uhh” in my head.

(Confession: I often have that in my head. That video is a masterpiece.)

So before we break down the playoff scenarios and projections, Wes, how exactly did we get here?

Wes Goldberg: One word, Chris.

DION EFFING WAITERS.

Also: The Heat got healthy, Erik Spoelstra gathered the horxruxes, Waiters and Goran Dragic went full Goku And Gohan (if they were Super Sayans at kicking dragon balls out to a sharp-shooting Piccolo) on the league and I mixed a few metaphors.

13-game win streak. No back-to-back losses since the All-Star break, and with just a handful of games left the Heat are in position for a playoff spot.

But all of that is behind us now. If the Heat do in fact make the playoffs, can they do more than even that? The Heat take and make a bunch of three’s, and protect the rim and the three-point line on defense. They have the right formula for winning basketball in today’s game.

I’m not saying the Heat could upset anyone in the first round but, Chris, can they?

Read More: Heat have decision to make about upcoming free agents

Posada: That paragraph of metaphors is completely lost to me, so I will just move on.

I was listening to Zach Lowe’s podcast with Bill Simmons and the second topic was “Are the Heat a first round threat?” They both agreed that they were – Simmons even went so far as saying they’d be a threat to the Cavs if Kevin Love isn’t at 100%.

I would have to agree that they are, but only to Boston and Washington. To me, getting the 6th/7th seed would be the ideal path for the Heat, as they can take advantage of the Celtics weaknesses – rebounding, interior defense – and can trade body blows with Boston’s offense. I personally don’t buy into the Wizards, as they’re separated from the Heat in NetRtg by a point. Something just feels wrong with them. Plus they would avoid the Cavs, and the Raptors and likely return of Kyle Lowry.

The Heat will actually go into the playoffs with zero expectations. If they win, great! If they lose, well, they dug themselves a large hole and it came back to bite them. But a team like the Celtics will have big expectations to make it at least to the ECF (especially if the Raptors is in the Cavs bracket). Another first round exit would bring them to a crossroads.

Do I think they’ll win a series? I won’t commit to that. But if the threes are falling (5th in the NBA in 3FG% since January 1st) and their defense gets out of the funk it’s been in for the past few games, they’re going to be a very hard out.

OK, Wes, reel me in. Am I wrong to think they can pull off an upset?

Goldberg: Reel you in? I think we’re both out to sea on this, dog. And we ain’t coming back. I’m a believer the Heat can win a first-round series. This isn’t a fluke. This isn’t some lucky break. The Heat are just good.

Since Jan. 17 (the beginning of the 13-game win streak), the Heat rank third in defensive rating, fifth in offensive rating and second in overall net rating behind only the Warriors. In other words: They’ve been one of the best five best teams in the league any way you slice it, and are the best team in the East in all of those categories during that time. And that’s not a small sample size. It’s been almost 30 games. That’s as good as any single-season sample there is.

Now, can they beat the Cavs? Probably not. Heat fans know that LeBron has a playoff gear, and let’s not forget that for whatever reason Tristan Thompson transforms into Dennis Rodman in the post-season. Miami doesn’t have an advantage over Cleveland. But why think small? Let’s go for the no. 7 or no. 6 seed!

Here’s why Miami can beat Boston:

• Boston’s advantage is its depth, which is less of an advantage when rotations shorten in the playoffs. Miami’s top eight or nine is as good as Boston’s.
• I’m still not buying Regular Season Isaiah Thomas will translate into Playoff Isaiah Thomas.
• Like you said, Miami has a size advantage
• Brad Stevens is a good coach, but Erik Spoelstra is better. And more experienced. Let’s remember that the Celtics have yet to win a playoff series.

Here’s why Miami can beat Washington:

• Since the All-Star break, Washington is allowing nearly 10 more three’s per game than Miami and their opponents make 40 percent of their three-pointers, the second-worst mark in the league.
• Miami likes to shoot three’s and they are very good at it.

Here’s why Miami can beat Toronto:

• Toronto is super injured and lowkey regular season Toronto is always better than playoffs Toronto.

The problem? Boston has an MVP candidate and two guys (Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk)  who can draw Whiteside’s out of the paint, Washington has the best player on the court (John Wall) and maybe the second and third best players too (Bradley Beal and Otto Porter) and Toronto, if healthy, is just better. But, look, as long as Miami doesn’t draw the Cavs, anything is possible.

Who would you rather see, Chris?

Posada: This is like the end of Thelma and Louise. There’s no turning back, we have to keep going!

I’d still lean on either Boston or Washington, so let’s go with the Celtics because of all the history these two teams have had against each other over the last seven years. Add in the weird drama Rajon Rondo and the 2008 Celtics are giving Ray Allen because he left for the Heat in 2012, and this matchup has the makings of a fun series. Spo vs. Stevens, Goran Dragic vs. Isaiah Thomas, Tony Fiorentino vs. Tommy Heinsohn. Let’s get weird!

I would agree they’re a good team. 30 games is a large enough sample to confirm that. The Heat were thrown together on the fly and they stumbled out of the gates. It’s a shame that all the injuries, as well as Spo needing the necessary time to work on what rotations will work best, derailed to start the first half of the year, because who knows what this team could be if the season had started on January 17th.

Which leads us to what exactly does Pat Riley do moving forward?

Goldberg: On the Locked On Heat podcast this week, Ira Winderman said this is a one-year rental of a team. I’m not so sure I agree. In fact, I disagree.

Look, the Big Three aren’t walking through that door, and Riley’s struck out on every major free agent signing since LeBron left. At this point, Riley might be content just winning more games than losing. If that’s the case, he can run this team back and win 40-plus games for a few years.

Still… I feel like having the chance to pounce on a free agent in 2018 and 2019 might prevent him from re-signing Waiters and James Johnson to long-term deals. And would those guys be content signing another one-year deal? No way, especially when they will surely get multi-year raises offered to them this summer.

So it depends on what Riley thinks this team’s ceiling is. Does he think Waiters and Justise Winslow can blossom into All Stars? Does he think Whiteside can be the second-coming of Alonzo Mourning? If so, re-signing them makes sense. If not, Winderman might be right about this being a one-and-done season.

What do you think this team’s ceiling is?

Posada: Did you ask Ira if he can unblock me on Twitter?

I think this is a one-year rental, but with an option to extend that rental for another year. I’ve been trying to look at the long view for this team and now they have options to play with that weren’t there before. We’ve seen the Goran Dragic that the Heat traded two first round picks for, and he’s glorious. He’s clearly the engine that makes this machine run.

Can the Heat build around him as a centerpiece? Absolutely.

Should they? Maybe.

I don’t think they’re going to strike big in free agency, since there’s no one that realistically will come to Miami. Gordon Hayward is in play for an All-NBA team, which would give the Jazz the chance to give him the mega-max. I can make a case for Blake Griffin. But barring a first round collapse by the Clippers, and the Heat making a run, I don’t see him leaving Los Angeles for South Beach.

So where does that leave the Heat? I think they could kick the tires on dealing Dragic at the draft, since his value is through the roof. But that likely ruins the goodwill the Heat have bought themselves during this run.

I talked myself into just extending this one more year. Offer Waiters a short term deal – two years, $25 million (opt out after first year). At 25, this give him the opportunity to show his last 25 games weren’t a fluke. James Johnson is tricky, because he’s already 30. I’d be comfortable letting him walk, since – theoretically – the idea of Winslow is similar to what they have in JJ. But they can bring back JJ at three years, $30 million and I’d be fine with that.

The way I see it, the Heat won’t have a pick next year, unless it’s top 7 (Suns get the pick if it’s outside the top 7 in 2018, unprotected in 2019). If they deal Dragic just to bottom out next year and keep that pick, that likely means they’ll still be bad in 2018-19 and won’t have a pick, so their rebuild goes into a third year. But if they keep this team together, they’ll likely be a playoff team next year, punt the pick, and then re-evaluate the rebuild possibility with back-to-back picks in 2019 and 2020. Not to mention that they can keep the party going and look to reload in free agency when guys like Paul George and Russell Westbrook will be available next summer.

I think the ceiling for this year’s team can be the second round, depending on the draw. Next year, I think just about the same. This is really wild, considering how they started. What do you think?

Goldberg: There isn’t really a clear a path to building an immediate contender, so I’m with you. Bring this group back. They work hard. They’re fun. They like each other. Spoelstra’s figured them out. Keep building on this group and churn the bottom of the roster with young players who could potentially boom like Whiteside, Tyler Johnson and McGruder.

Like you said, though, the Heat won’t have a first-round pick for a couple of years after this one. That means they have to nail this pick, even when it ends up being in the middle of the round. It’s tougher than in the lottery, but All-Star players can be picked anywhere. Miami’s lucky that this is a deep draft.

Say they’re picking between 15 and 22. They could take a chance on Indiana’s OG Anunoby (who suffered a season-ending injury but has top-10 potential), Germany’s Isaiah Hartenstein (who will inevitably draw comparisons to Kristaps Porzingis), UCLA’s T.J. Leaf (a power forward who always plays well when I watch him), Syracuse’s Tyler Lydon (think Luke Babbitt, but with hope), Duke’s Luke Kennard (could make Tyler Johnson or Wayne Ellington expendable) and Creighton’s Justin Patton (could replace Willie Reed as the backup center and push Whiteside).

Either way, I think they need to go with the Giannis approach. Find someone young who is oozing with athleticism and desire to be great. Swing BIG. Of course, that could end up being anywhere between Giannis and Bruno Caboclo, but they should still take the chance. Who do you like in that range?

Posada: Isaiah Hartenstein has a cool name, so that works for me. Otherwise, my strength isn’t in draft prospects.

Goldberg: Hartenstein it is, then.

Posada: And for those lamenting the loss of a lottery pick this year, let’s look at it this way: the Heat have Winslow coming back next year (who missed out on this new style the Heat are playing), plus their own pick. That’s basically two picks, right there. This run has also given us McGruder, who has developed from D-League star to important rotation player on a possible playoff team. This team has both roster and financial flexibility, unlike the 2014-15 Heat that was built primarily through veterans. The Heat’s new core is young and full of potential. It’s a good place for the Heat to be.