Does Erik Spoelstra need to switch up the Miami Heat’s rotation? Why is Josh Richardson struggling, has the league figured out how to beat the Heat?
You can send future mailbag questions to LockedOnHeat@gmail.com. Thanks to those of you who have sent questions. In addition to answering them on the podcast with my co-host David Ramil, I’ll answer them in this weekly column. Let’s do it.
What rotation changes can Erik Spoelstra make to shore up the starting lineup without compromising the bench? – Jeff Nichols
When I asked the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Ira Winderman this question on our podcast, I mentioned that the Heat might want to move James Johnson into the starting lineup. Here was my logic: Without Dion Waiters, the Heat lack guys who can get to the rim and kick out to open teammates. Johnson has been very good at that this season, and starting him would add another ball handler to the first unit.
Winderman dismissed the idea. Here was his logic: If you move James Johnson into the starting lineup, then you don’t have as much ball handling in the reserve group that features him and Tyler Johnson.
That’s the problem without having Waiters. Miami has four bonafide ball handlers and distributors: Goran Dragic, Waiters and the two Johnsons. The idea is to have two of them on the court at all times to keep the offense humming. Lose one to injury, and the plan goes to crap.
If Justise Winslow weren’t hurt, he could have stepped into that role. Even Josh McRoberts could have done a nice job as a point forward a la James Johnson. Given that the Heat are using two roster spots on Udonis Haslem, whose officially entered the 2013 Juwan Howard phase of his career, and Chris Bosh, that means the Heat are playing with 11 guys. The Heat have a depth problem.
So the Heat won’t be able to replace its square hole with a square. They need to solve the problen with a different shape. That’s what Spoelstra is trying to do by starting Josh Richardson, who is a different player altogether than Waiters. He’s a longer, more versatile defender, who in theory could be a better catch-and-shoot three-point shooter. Put the ball in Dragic’s hands more, and give him three shooters to kick out to and a rim roller like Hassan Whiteside and the offense should still be rolling.
Two problems: Dragic is playing through an extremely painful foot injury, and Richardson just hasn’t been that good. Which brings us to Jeff’s next question:
Are Josh Richardson’s struggles due to injury, inconsistent role, too large of a role, or just who he is? – Jeff Nichols
There’s this perception that Josh Richardson has fallen off a cliff this season, but check out his per 36 stats:
| Season | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
| 2015-16 | 4 | 8.8 | 45% | 1.7 | 3.7 | 46% | 1.4 | 2 | 67% | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 11.1 |
| 2016-17 | 4.5 | 11.7 | 38% | 1.5 | 5 | 30% | 1.3 | 1.8 | 75% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 11.8 |
Nearly identical. The drop off has been in his efficiency. His three-point shooting went from elite to bad (46 percent to 30 percent) and his True Shooting percentage went from 56.9 percent to 47.3 percent. So does Richardson just suck at shooting now?
Sort of. Richardson is shooting 36 percent on what NBA.com considers open shots, compared to 48 percent his rookie season. That’s a bad sign, but could be attributed to the injuries Richardson’s suffered in his up-and-down sophomore season. Shooting is a rhythm game, and Richardson’s never been able to get into one.
However, Richardson has had to try to create more for himself this season, with 46 percent of his shots being unassisted, compared to just 35 percent last season.
Richardson isn’t shooting as well as last season, that’s for sure. But after suffering a partially torn MCL in training camp, his season never got off to the right foot. He’s not been able to figure the offense, and offense hasn’t been able to figure out how to use him. It feels like a throwaway season for Richardson (and Winslow, for that matter). Maybe he can salvage something in these last few games.
The Raptors have sent the blueprint out to the rest of the league in how to beat the Heat. Drag games in the mud, play tough defense and have a great isolation scorer. This team isn’t built for that type of game. – Taylor Monk
It isn’t enough just to have the blueprint, you have to have the right builders. The Raptors have one of the best one-on-one players in the NBA in DeMar DeRozan, which allows them to slow games down. DeRozan can always get a shot off.
Other teams in the East don’t have that, and have to play fast. The Celtics don’t have a one-on-one player like DeRozan. Neither do the Wizards, Hawks, Bucks or Pacers (Paul George settles too much, and because he has no other threatening teammates the Heat can double him).
Luckily for the Heat, dominant one-on-one players are among the toughest players in the league to find. There just aren’t that many of them. That’s why someone who can even sort of kind of sometimes be like that like Evan Turner and Rudy Gay continue to find work and get paid handsomely.
The Heat last year played too slow with Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson isolating on nearly every play. Now maybe they play too fast. That’s just the NBA. Few teams can play both ways and win. Only the Cavaliers in the East have the players to play slow and fast and still dominate. No team is perfect, and the Heat are far from it