Ranking the Miami Heat’s best-case first round playoff matchups
By Rob Slater
With the Miami Heat clinging to the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and five games remaining, who among the top-three seeds would make for the best first round matchup?
This Miami Heat team has provided no shortage of entertainment and surprises along the way to their complete reinvention in the second half of the season.
With five games remaining, the Heat somehow sit in the eighth spot after a historic turnaround. Once again, the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoffs are air-tight, with each night violently jostling the standings. The Heat are two games out of sixth, currently occupied by the fading Atlanta Hawks, making any of the top-three seeds a realistic playoff opponent.
But which would be the best matchup for Miami? There’s no denying they’ll go into any possible first round series as a heavy underdog but let’s take a closer look at each team and how the Heat stack up.
3. Toronto Raptors
The least-possible matchup actually ranks as the worst for the Heat. A rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semifinals may be the same teams but with a whole new cast of characters particularly on the Heat’s side.
The Raptors have been one of the league’s most consistent teams in the second half of the season, especially after acquiring Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker, forming a dangerous frontline along with Jonas Valanciunas.
After the All-Star break, they’ve dominated teams on the boards, notching the second-best rebounding rate in the last 20 games and third-best offensive rebounding rate. They’re controlling the glass with Ibaka, Tucker and Valanciunas creating additional offensive opportunities for one of the league’s most dangerous scorers: DeMar DeRozan, who is operating at 27.2 points per game since the All-Star break.
This matchup looms problematic for the Heat as the Raptors beefed up a frontline that already gave Hassan Whiteside enough trouble throughout the seven games in last year’s playoffs. On top of that, Goran Dragic has struggled against the Raptors backcourt, shooting just 39 percent.
A bright spot for Miami is that Whiteside has had success against the new-look Raptors this year, shooting 56 percent in three games. The two teams split their matchups in March (Toronto beat Miami in November) including a 104-89 Miami win with the Raptors at full strength in a game where the Heat lost Goran Dragic to injury.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
While it’s tough to imagine the possibility of wanting to play a LeBron James-led team in the playoffs, the reality is the Cavaliers are in such disarray at the moment that it’s not foolish to think they’d be vulnerable in the first round.
Since the All-Star break, the Cavs are 10-11 and their defense has fallen off a cliff. Their defensive rating of 112.3 (net rating of -1.3) is second worst in the league during that stretch and the potent offense they’ve displayed most of the season hasn’t been enough to carry them through.
Two of those losses in that stretch were to the Heat, who dispatched Cleveland twice in as many days in early March. The Heat tallied 226 points in those two games while holding the Cavs to under 100 in each.
Dragic has especially feasted on the Cavs’ failing defense, shooting 52 percent from the field and 57 percent from three, his second best three-point percentage against all 30 teams (minimum 10 attempts).
One of the big variables for this matchup working in Miami’s favor is the health of Dion Waiters (as is all of Miami’s playoff hopes) who scored 29 points including a dagger three in Miami’s win at Cleveland. His shot-making and ability to create his own offense when the Heat need it down the stretch will be crucial to potentially stealing a playoff game on the road and flipping the tide of a series.
But still, a matchup with the defending champions means dealing with LeBron James’ 28 points per game playoff average and a team that’ll surely “flip the switch” when the time comes. Until that happens, however, the Heat’s relentless and balanced attack could pose some problems.
1. Boston Celtics
The Heat did not beat the Celtics once this season, zero wins in four games, but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that this is the best possible matchup for the Heat.
Starting with the intangibles—the Celtics will more than likely come into the playoffs as the number one seed in the East, adding immense pressure to their playoff expectations. The Heat would have the luxury of playing loose, without the burden of the top seed.
On the court, the Heat can take advantage of a massive mismatch inside as Whiteside has feasted on a thin Celtics frontline to the tune of 65 percent from the field. Dragic is also taking advantage of his matchup shooting 52 percent overall and 46 percent from three.
Maybe the most indicative of a Heat-Celtics first round matchup came with their fourth and final meeting in late March–a 112-108 Celtics win in Boston and their first matchup since Dec. 30 when the Heat were 10-24.
Miami actually took the lead late in the fourth quarter until a couple of late offensive blunders and questionable officiating tipped the game to the home team, but their tough road pedigree was proven once again in one of the league’s toughest arenas.
The Celtics present many of the same challenges that the Heat offer opponents. They spread the floor and share the ball (second best assist rate in the league since the All-Star break) and employ one of the league’s deadliest pick and roll offenses.
With Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk and Amir Johnson setting screens for Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, it provides Brad Stevens with a wealth of offensive options. It also doesn’t help that the Heat’s pick-and-roll defense is less than stellar, allowing a score from the ball handler 40 percent of the time and 51 percent for the roll man.
But Miami offers up their own set of offensive challenges for Boston, who can put some dreadful defensive lineups on the floor including two of their most-used lineups that produce negative net ratings.
Next: Can the Heat hold on to their playoff spot?
The status of Dion Waiters will come into play. If the Heat can have a healthy Dion they have the offense to go up against the Celtics. The key will be producing those clutch baskets that are necessary to win playoff games, something that the Celtics do with ease by going to Isaiah Thomas.
Still, when looking at the best matchup for the Heat in the playoffs, look no further than the Boston Celtics.