Is Dion Waiters worth breaking the bank for?
Were 46-games enough for Dion Waiters to show the Miami Heat he deserves a big contract or just proof he should take a discount?
Some things in the NBA are simply unexplainable. For example a team with no first round picks benching six players as if they were tanking or a .500 team that is actually competing, missing the postseason. Unfortunately for the Miami Heat, both cases mean that their offseason officially begin today.
No one knows for sure what Miami’s first priority will be, but the front of the line will feature a free agency class headed by Dion Waiters. But which way will the team lean? The Sun-Sentinel’s Ira Winderman believes that the last few games could give them some direction:
"“Monday also showed, with the play of Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson, that the Heat might have sufficient depth of talent at shooting guard. What Monday also showed is how essential James Johnson is to this process, because without his play at the start of the fourth quarter, the Heat don’t get to overtime or the victory. It might not be fair, but the absence of Dion Waiters has allowed the Heat to explore other opportunities.”"
Such thinking sounds absurd for a former No. 4 pick who seems to be hitting his stride. A stride that has seen him tie a career high in scoring (15.8) while upping his assists, rebounds and three-point shooting to 4.3, 3.3 and 40 percent per game.
The Heat’s 27-19 record with him–and 14-22 record without–is proof of how much Waiters was needed this season. Not to mention that his contributions were a major part of what spurred the 13-game win streak that helped the Heat go from 11-30 at the start to 41-41 by season’s end.
His irrational confidence, as Erik Spoelstra called it, allowed him to go out without fear when taking hero shots to put them up, beat the buzzer or seal games. His play was to the point where the mystique around him being a closer overshadowed the fact that his fourth quarters where not really clutch–averaging 3.6 points on 37.8 shooting.
The truth is, Miami would not have been in position to make the playoffs without Waiters. They also would have likely crept into the postseason if it were not for his young Steph Curry ankle injuries. So does that push his value up or drown him for being unreliable?
The latter may be the right answer. Whether you call them fluke injuries or not, they are the reason Waiters deserves to be paid, but not in abundance.
To put it in perspective, Waiters only played a little more than half of the games (46) this season. That is 14 less than an aging Dwyane Wade who averaged three more points and a better shooting percentage from the field.
Yes, Waiters is younger and meshed better with Goran Dragic, but if Pat Riley was unwilling to break the bank for Wade, he should not mortgage the future for a fifth-year player who may have just been putting up numbers in a contract season.
In the end, it all comes down to his impact on winning, like Riley said. Too bad for Waiters, he only lasted 12 of the 25 games the team president wanted to use to measure his true impact.