The Heat have options at small forward

The Miami Heat have built a versatile roster with multiple options to start at small forward. Let’s break down those options here.

The Miami Heat hoped Gordon Hayward would be its starting small forward next season, giving the team a bona fide All-Star on the wing who could become the centerpiece of its offense. Instead, Hayward went to Boston, and Miami turned to Plan B. Who it’s starting small forward will be is very much up in the air.

Let’s meet the candidates: Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Rodney McGruder and Josh Richardson. Each provide something different while also taking something off the table. Depending on how Miami’s offense will operate, and what sort of rotation head coach Erik Spoelstra settles on, will determine which is the best option to start at the 3.

When asked about if Winslow–the 10th pick in the draft in 2015 who started all of 18 games before undergoing shoulder surgery and missing the remainder of the season–will reclaim his starting gig, Pat Riley said “It’s up to him.”

"“Justise,” Riley said, via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, “is going to compete like crazy to start and Josh will, Dion, all of them. I think the great thing about Spo is when we come into training camp, it’s open. It’s wide open.“Then he’s going to figure out who’s going to be starting and who’s going to be in the rotation.”"

Riley’s, and general manager Andy Elisburg’s, job is mostly done. Soon, Spoelstra will get training camp and preseason to determine his regular-season lineup. Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters and Hassan Whiteside are settled in as starters. Newly re-signed Kelly Olynyk and James Johnson will compete for the starting power forward spot next to Whiteside.

I like Olynyk’s chances. Not only did he just sign a four-year, $50 million to join the Heat, but also the only way he may live up to that contract is to get starters’ minutes. When Whiteside goes to the bench, he can easily slide over to the 5 as well. That’d allow Johnson to come in at the 4, either off the bench or by shifting from the 3. It makes the most sense.

So let’s say the set starters are Dragic, Waiters, Olynyk and Whiteside. Which small forward fits the best with that unit?

Between Dragic, Waiters and Olynyk, it’s not a lineup that should want too much for shooting. Still, a non-shooter could clog the paint for 7-Eleven and prevent them from doing their thing in getting to the rim. With those two being the only facilitators, Miami could use a tertiary ball handler in the remaining spot (since Olynyk and Whiteside aren’t doing it.)

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Defensively, Waiters is a strong, stocky wing stopper who will likely take the toughest backcourt assignment. Whiteside, of course, is there protecting the rim. However, the Heat could be vulnerable against lengthy wings–the LeBrons, Paul Georges and Kevin Durants of the world. McGruder took on those assignments last season but he’s really the size of a shooting guard, and at times was exploited. McGruder admirably worked his tail off last season, but he’s not a realistic option to start on a healthy Heat team.

Johnson makes a lot of sense as the starter. He mostly played power forward last season (91 percent of the time, according to basketball-reference.com) but has all the skills needed to play the other forward spot. He can dribble, facilitate, shoot three-pointers respectably (34 percent) and credibly defend the top wings in the league.

But all of that is what also makes him the perfect player to come off the bench. Johnson is a savvy enough ball handler to lead a second-unit offense–something Winslow is still struggling with.

Like Tyler Johnson, James Johnson’s strength is his versatility, and that may be best utilized off the bench. He can fill in wherever the Heat are lacking on any given night. Miami’s bench was plus-0.8 points per game last season, sixth-best in the league. Spoelstra may not want to neuter his bench by moving its best player to the starting lineup.

That leaves Winslow and Richardson.

Spoelstra didn’t shy away from playing three-guard lineups last season–often including Richardson–but that was mostly due to necessity. Winslow started the season at small forward, and the team viewed McGruder as an undersized forward, not necessarily a guard.

However, playing three guards also allowed the Heat to spread minutes among a deep backcourt. Right now, Miami has six guards who deserve playing time (Dragic, Waiters, Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington, Richardson and McGruder). The only way to provide them all enough minutes is to routinely play three of them at a time. (This is another reason to bring James Johnson off the bench as a point-forward.)

Seeing as how Richardson can play anywhere between the 1 and 3, it makes more sense to bring him in off the bench, where he can fill in for either Dragic, Waiters, or at small forward.

And so we’re left with Winslow.

But that shouldn’t be the default answer. Winslow provides a lot of things that starting unit needs. Namely, length and defensive versatility. Winslow’s defensive instincts are elite, and belong in a starting lineup against the league’s best opposing wing scorers. While his shooting could potentially muck things up for the offense, it’s not terribly prohibitive. That’s where Olynyk’s ability to stretch the floor from the power forward position is so valuable.

The Heat are also hoping Winslow, now with a healthy wrist and shoulder, can improve his jumper. With Dragic and Waiters leading the offense, Winslow is in a position much like his rookie year: Play hard, make hustle plays and jump shots when they come to him, and he’ll be just fine.

Next: Pat Riley is settling for being good, and that's okay

Miami missed out on the star free agents this summer, and have built its roster for the foreseeable future. Their best avenue to compete for the Eastern Conference is through internal development, and Winslow’s best chance to take a leap is as a starter. That’s what makes this next season for Winslow so intriguing.