After a fruitful summer free agency, will the Miami Heat be a better 3-point shooting team than last season?
The Miami Heat’s success in the second half of last season came in large part due to the team finding its groove on offense. With Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters for the most part healthy, head coach Erik Spoelstra developed a drive-and-kick offense that leveraged the talents of the backcourt and supporting cast.
As Nick Sciria of Nylon Calculus wrote this summer, the Heat had one of the best spacing offenses in the league last season. The lineup of Dragic, Waiters, Rodney McGruder, Luke Babbitt and Hassan Whiteside had the eighth best “Spacing Rating” in the NBA, and made 39.2 percent of their 3-point attempts.
That got me thinking about how Miami’s offense might look in the 2017-18 season. The Heat struck out on Gordon Hayward but, because of that, were able to re-purpose its max cap space to re-sign Waiters and James Johnson. They also added noted 3-point shooting big man Kelly Olynyk to the group.
While I don’t have the skills like Nick to evaluate “Spacing Rating,” I can add things into a chart and see if Miami should be a better or worse 3-point shooting team next season.
Let’s start with last season’s team, which combined to shoot 35.1 percent from 3-point range.
2016-17 Heat Players | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | |
1 | Josh McRoberts | 1.7 | 4.1 | 42% |
2 | Luke Babbitt | 4.1 | 9.9 | 41% |
3 | Goran Dragic | 2.4 | 5.9 | 41% |
4 | Dion Waiters | 3.1 | 7.8 | 40% |
5 | Wayne Ellington | 5 | 13.2 | 38% |
6 | Tyler Johnson | 2.2 | 5.8 | 37% |
7 | Okaro White | 1.3 | 3.6 | 35% |
8 | James Johnson | 2.1 | 6.2 | 34% |
9 | Rodney McGruder | 1.9 | 5.6 | 33% |
10 | Josh Richardson | 2.3 | 7.1 | 33% |
11 | Willie Reed | 0 | 0.2 | 25% |
12 | Justise Winslow | 0.6 | 2.8 | 20% |
13 | Derrick Williams | 1.2 | 6 | 20% |
14 | Udonis Haslem | 0 | 1.2 | 0% |
15 | Hassan Whiteside | 0 | 0 |
And here is the best 3-point shooting lineups. I’ve included the assist numbers and plus/minus just because I thought it was interesting.
2016-17 Heat Lineups | GP | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | AST | +/- |
G.Dragic, D.Waiters, R.McGruder, J.Johnson, H.Whiteside | 21 | 16 | 30.3 | 52.9 | 31.2 | 25.8 |
G.Dragic, T.Johnson, J.Richardson, J.Johnson, H.Whiteside | 22 | 11.1 | 22.8 | 48.9 | 21.2 | 24.3 |
G.Dragic, D.Waiters, R.McGruder, L.Babbitt, H.Whiteside | 26 | 12.1 | 25.8 | 47 | 22.3 | 1 |
G.Dragic, T.Johnson, D.Waiters, J.Johnson, H.Whiteside | 21 | 10.8 | 30.5 | 35.3 | 19.2 | -4.2 |
G.Dragic, T.Johnson, W.Ellington, J.Johnson, W.Reed | 25 | 9 | 26.5 | 33.9 | 20.2 | 2.2 |
G.Dragic, T.Johnson, W.Ellington, J.Johnson, H.Whiteside | 22 | 9.9 | 30.4 | 32.6 | 18.4 | -7.1 |
G.Dragic, T.Johnson, R.McGruder, J.Johnson, H.Whiteside | 25 | 4.7 | 22.3 | 21.2 | 17.6 | -8.1 |
A few takeaways:
- Dragic was involved in every lineup (but not Waiters), which shows his importance to Miami’s offense.
- The team took more 3-pointers and made them at a higher rate when they subbed Babbitt for James Johnson. This, despite Babbitt being one of the best 3-point shooters on the team and James Johnson being relatively average. The Heat also had far more assists and out-scored their opponents by nearly 25 more points per 100 possessions with James Johnson in place of Babbitt.
- The most-used lineup played just 26 games together. That should improve next season with more consistency and less injuries.
Now let’s adjust for the 2017-18 roster, subtracting Willie Reed, Josh McRoberts, Luke Babbitt and Derrick Williams, and adding Olynyk, A.J. Hammons, Matt Williams (who may or may not make the team but, for now, is the 15th man) and rookie Bam Adebayo.
2017-18 Heat Roster | 3P | 3PA | 3P% |
A.J. Hammons | 1.6 | 3.2 | 50% |
Goran Dragic | 2.4 | 5.9 | 41% |
Dion Waiters | 3.1 | 7.8 | 40% |
Matt Williams | 2.9 | 7.4 | 39% |
Wayne Ellington | 5 | 13.2 | 38% |
Tyler Johnson | 2.2 | 5.8 | 37% |
Kelly Olynyk | 2.2 | 6.2 | 35% |
Okaro White | 1.3 | 3.6 | 35% |
James Johnson | 2.1 | 6.2 | 34% |
Rodney McGruder | 1.9 | 5.6 | 33% |
Josh Richardson | 2.3 | 7.1 | 33% |
Justise Winslow | 0.6 | 2.8 | 20% |
Udonis Haslem | 0 | 1.2 | 0% |
Hassan Whiteside | 0 | 0 | |
Bam Adebayo | 0 | 0 |
This group shoots an average of 36.3 percent on 3-pointers. That more than a 1 point increase from last season’s 35.1 percent average. So the Heat are clearly building on what worked last season.
The Heat shot the eighth most 3-pointers in the league after the All-Star break last season, at 30.1 per 100 possessions. The Houston Rockets led the league with 39.8. If Miami improves on their second-half rate, they could rise into the top five.
Now, what if the Heat had actually signed Hayward? How would that have impacted the roster’s 3-point shooting? I took a guess at what Miami’s roster might look like in that case. They still make the trade to unload McRoberts for cap space and Hammons, giving them enough room to re-sign James Johnson, but not Dion Waiters. They also lose Wayne Ellington in the process. I have Babbitt staying, since Miami would have been able to go over the cap to re-sign him.
2017-18 Heat Roster With Hayward | 3P | 3PA | 3P% |
A.J. Hammons | 1.6 | 3.2 | 50% |
Luke Babbitt | 4.1 | 9.9 | 41% |
Goran Dragic | 2.4 | 5.9 | 41% |
Gordon Hayward | 3.1 | 7.8 | 40% |
Matt Williams | 2.9 | 7.4 | 39% |
Tyler Johnson | 2.2 | 5.8 | 37% |
Okaro White | 1.3 | 3.6 | 35% |
James Johnson | 2.1 | 6.2 | 34% |
Rodney McGruder | 1.9 | 5.6 | 33% |
Josh Richardson | 2.3 | 7.1 | 33% |
Justise Winslow | 0.6 | 2.8 | 20% |
Udonis Haslem | 0 | 1.2 | 0% |
Hassan Whiteside | 0 | 0 | |
Bam Adebayo | 0 | 0 |
That group shoots 3’s at a rate of 36.8 percent, better than both last season’s roster (35.1) and next season’s (36.3).
Having Hayward also would have taken Justise Winslow–a poor 3-point shooter–out of the starting lineup. A projected lineup of Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Hayward, James Johnson and Whiteside provides Miami with multiple ball handlers and shooters. The only non-shooter being Whiteside.
Miami’s real lineup is yet to be determined, but Winslow may be the favorite for the starting small forward role. In that case, Miami’s starting unit could be Dragic, Waiters, Winslow, Olynyk (or James Johnson ) and Whiteside. That’s still a team with multiple ball handlers, but now there are two non-shooters.
Next: Making sense of the Kyrie Irving situation
What if Winslow isn’t the starter, though? Could Miami keep McGruder in the 3 spot, or slide Josh Richardson–a better shooter and longer defender–in?
The Heat did their best to improve the team even without Hayward and, either way, they should be a better 3-point shooting team than last season. As the league rewards teams that get it done from beyond the arc, that’s a step in the right direction.