Goldie vs CPo: What should the Miami Heat give up for Kyrie Irving?
By Wes Goldberg
Kyrie Irving listed the Miami Heat as one of his preferred destination, but what should Pat Riley be willing to offer? All U Can Heat’s Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada debate an appropriate price.
Wes Goldberg: The Kyrie Irving talks seemed to have stalled a bit. Why else would the Cleveland Cavaliers not have traded him yet? Maybe this means the Miami Heat have a shot at him. If you were hired as a special adviser to Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg (or, Rilesburg), what would you recommend they offer for Irving?
Chris Posada: As to why the Cavs haven’t moved him as of this moment, I think they have a deal they’d love to make – Eric Bledsoe, Josh Jackson, and the Heat’s first round pick in 2018 – but aren’t getting traction on because the Suns don’t want to part with Jackson. That’s the bar for them, but the recent trades for Paul George and Jimmy Butler work against their bargaining position. I’m guessing the only concrete offer they have on the table is Miami’s Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow, hence why they leaked it (I don’t buy the Heat’s denial of the offer, however you want to define what their actual conversation was about) and are hoping someone can come over the top.
Now does this mean the Heat have a real shot? I think they’re behind the eight ball, as they have no draft picks to move until their 2023 first rounder, and Winslow’s value is shot. Not to mention the unique history these two teams have with each other also muddies the water.
What would I offer? Knowing the Cavs would want to play hardball with me, I’d be open to any and all offers they make. Give them a paper with everyone on the Heat’s roster that is trade eligible (so Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Kelly Olynyk are off the table because they can’t be dealt until December) and ask them who do they want.
If Dragic/Winslow won’t work, I’d move up to Dragic/Whiteside/Josh Richardson for Kyrie/Tristan Thompson/Iman Shumpert.
Cavs get two veterans under contract ready to contribute for a Finals run and a young three and D guy they have under team control. They also save some money, which is nice for a team in the luxury tax hell they find themselves in. The Heat get the jewel of the trade, plus a young rotational big. Shumpert is just a throw in, but has a player option for 2018-19, so hopefully he plays well.
So what do you think?
Goldberg: That’s a lot to give up for one player, and I’m not comfortable taking on the expensive contracts of Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert. I’d take Shumpert, but not both.
I agree with you that the Heat should be motivated to trade for Irving. After this offseason, it’s clear the only way Miami gets a superstar is either via trade or internal development. They don’t have cap space to sign free agents moving forward, or very many draft picks. Who knows when the next time a player of Irving’s caliber will be available. Shoot your shot.
If Miami trades for Irving, the chances of other All-Stars wanting to come to South Beach improve. As of now, the Heat have movable contracts and could clear the space necessary for a star who wants to play with them. But if you take on $74 million worth of Thompson and Shumpert, it gets really hard to clear additional space. It usually takes attaching draft picks to unload those sort of contracts and, as you already mentioned, Miami can’t trade a pick until 2023’s, which is so far in the future that it’s irrelevant.
That leaves the Heat with two options (a) building around Kyrie Irving alone, which, eh, or (2) attaching young players to move bad contracts, i.e. Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo.
Before you say anything, Chris, you’re right. Miami can still move Kelly Olynyk, Dion Waiters and James Johnson to make room for another max-level free agent. But that only nets one other All Star. Is Kyrie Irving and one star enough to dethrone LeBron James? Is that better than what Boston has? Does that even win a game against the Warriors? The answer is no.
Keeping Winslow in your proposed trade almost made me sign off on it. If the Heat can trade for Irving, sign another star (after trading away two of Johnson, Waiters and Olynyk without, somehow, taking any salary back) and Winslow develops into an All-Star, that gives Miami a very good trio. But those are a lot of ifs.
That trade ties up Rilesburg even more than they are now.
I’d offer Dragic, Winslow, and either Tyler Johnson or Wayne Ellington, and take Shumpert off of Cleveland’s hands (One bad deal isn’t nearly as bad as two). That’s as far as I’d go. If the Cavs take it, great. If not, oh well. Otherwise I think Miami would just be running in place.
Posada: Miami is already running in place. The roster they have in place is just enough to keep them playoff relevant for the next few years because they have no alternatives. They can’t tank because they don’t have the picks to dive head-first into it (in terms of picks the next four years, the Heat are in a worse spot than the Nets), but the writing is on the wall in terms of them finding a star in free agency without having the means to have one in place, so this the happy medium.
Kyrie doesn’t make the Heat any better now, but I rather have a 25 year old star moving far than what the Heat have now. There’s only a finite amount of time Dragic plays at this level, and his value drops by the day as he both ages and his contract comes up. Kyrie at least presents a step in the right direction. If you’re also in the “Culture” camp and believe in Erik Spoelstra’s coaching, then this is a shot to take, no matter the price.
So no, I don’t think my deal is too much to give up.
Dragic is at his ceiling and not getting younger, and Whiteside is the way to – hopefully – beat any offer that includes a pick. Thompson’s 25 and only has three years left on a deal that isn’t awful in terms of money; it’s just not good in terms of the guy it’s attached to. But the Shumpert deal can be flipped at the deadline.
Goldberg: Ehhhh, I’m not so sure about that.
Posada: Speaking of the deadline, assuming the Heat did this, they can kick the tires on someone like DeMarcus Cousins (a free agent next summer) if the Pelicans continue to be the Pelicans, so that’s a potential trade candidate. Would help things along for him to do the tried and true “Boogie is interested in Miami” rumor that seems to be the thing. He and Kyrie played together for Team USA, so there’s a connection.
If the Heat end up keeping their 2019 pick, that becomes tradeable as early as next summer, so let’s say the Timberwolves don’t live up to expectations and Jimmy Butler now becomes an option. He and Kyrie are friends, that’s another connection.
And that’s the important thing about this kind of move: connections. The Heat learned this in 2010, and they’re re-learning it now. If the Heat end up having to overpay with they currently have, then that’s a necessary evil. The Heat need this deal.
Goldberg: Wait. So now we’re talking about a hypothetical within an hypothetical?
I’M IN.
Alright, so let’s say the Heat make your deal for Irving (I still think it’s too much, but let’s see how this plays out) and the Pelicans decide at the deadline they want to trade Cousins. What would it take to get him?
New Orleans flipped Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and a top-10 pick for him, so they wouldn’t get that much in return. Could the Heat then trade Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters for DeMarcus Cousins and Solomon Hill? Then you’re looking at a lineup of Irving, Shumpert, Winslow, James Johnson and Cousins, with Tyler Johnson, Hill and Ellington coming off the bench.
Meh.
Look, I like the Cousins idea, and I like pairing him with Irving. I just still don’t know what that team’s ceiling is. A Kyrie/Boogie duo isn’t as good as LeBron/Love or Thomas/Hayward or Wall/Beal or Lowry/DeRozan. It isn’t better than what the 76ers are building, either.
At that point, the Heat would had to trade away so many assets and take so many bad contracts back that they’d be mostly locked in. I don’t know where they’d go from there. Could another superstar shake loose? Sure. But Miami is already short of assets to acquire Irving, let alone other players after cleaning out the treasure chest. If the Cavs demanded Whiteside, I’m not sure what I say if I’m Riley. But it almost kills their options to build a real contender.
I’m all in on trading for Kyrie if the Cavs would take Dragic, Winslow and Ellington (is Whiteside even much of an upgrade for them over Thompson? For what they do? Whiteside wants to be a star, and TT will do the dirty work so LeBron doesn’t have to). I’d include Richardson or Tyler Johnson, too, if that’s what it took, but I think the Heat could get more for Whiteside.
I’m envisioning a future when Irving breaks out as Miami’s star, and Bam Adebayo is showing enough promise that Miami can trade Whiteside for a top-12 pick and add to a young core.
Now that I’m writing it all out, maybe my thing is just as unlikely as your thing…
(Thinking)
What if the Heat trade Whiteside and a young piece (Richardson, Tyler or Winslow) for Irving straight up?
That would prevent Miami from taking on Thompson’s contract while also making Dragic available to trade to a third team for assets, or–now hear me out–play alongside Kyrie in the backcourt.
A three-guard lineup of Dragic, Irving and Waiters could be really interesting. It would allow Irving to play off the ball a little (and give the Heat some insurance if he’s not up to the challenge of running the offense) and Dragic has experience playing the 2 in Phoenix. Waiters is a sturdy perimeter defender who is as good an option to start at the 3 as anyone else currently on the Heat. Spoelstra didn’t shy away from playing three-guard lineups last season, and this would be three All-Star caliber guards.
How excited are you right now, Chris?
Posada: You’re speaking my language now, Wes!
If they can keep Dragic and add Kyrie, that would be intriguing. Those three-guard sets would be fun, and I agree that Waiters has the body to guard 3s. They could actually have a lesser version of what the Rockets will run, with 48 minutes of point guards that can run an offense.
I think the concern that even if the Heat manage the dream hypothetical of Kyrie/Boogie that they’d still be behind teams like the Cavs, Celtics, and Raptors. The flip side is the Heat would have two stars that are younger than what those teams are running. Kyrie is 25 and Cousins turns 27 in August. The cores of those other teams are also getting older (of course Boston has the assets and blah blah blah). The Sixers pose a bigger long-term threat, although it’s fair to question what they really have with all the question marks surrounding their health.
One last deal, but it can’t work on the trade machine because I can’t do five teams:
Goldberg: Oh boy…
Posada: Heat get Kyrie and Cousins
Cavs get Bledsoe and Whiteside
Nuggets get Dragic
Pelicans get Thompson, Wilson Chandler, and Heat’s 2023 first
Suns get Emmanuel Mudiay, Richardson, and a lotto protected first from Denver
Tell me how much you love that, Wes.
Next: 5 free agents the Heat should target in 2018
Goldberg: My brain hurts.
I don’t think that’s enough for Cleveland. They’re going to want a young prospect or a draft pick, and there are plenty between those teams that we can throw in. But now we’re going down a rabbit hole that our readers may not be interested in.
The more time goes by, the better Dragic and Winslow must look for Cleveland. Maybe it’s not ideal, but nothing about this situation is for the Cavaliers. This is when Riley needs to pounce, but maybe he won’t have to give up the farm to do it.