Why the Miami Heat will steal Game 1 versus the Philadelphia 76ers

The Miami Heat are tipping off their playoff campaign against the Philadelphia 76ers on the road, on Saturday night.

The Philadelphia 76ers, who finished as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, boast a 16 game winning streak heading into Saturday’s match up against the Miami Heat. By comparison, the Heat have won nine of their last 16 games. Conventional wisdom would suggest momentum is on the 76ers’ side and they’re the clear-cut favorites to win Game 1, as well as the entire series against the Heat.

However, not so fast kemosabe. At least solely speaking on a Game 1 perspective.

The Heat’s calling card is their defense; the kind of defense that finished the regular season as the fourth best in the NBA. The Heat allowed 102.9 ppg while the 76ers finished 11th, allowing 105.3 ppg.

The 76ers finished as the seventh best scoring offense at 105.3 ppg, as the Heat finished 23rd at 102.9 ppg. But I’m here to tell you that this match up isn’t about statistics. It’s about grit, toughness, mental preparation, having a closer, execution, composure, experience, 3-point shooting, defense and the element of surprise.

And before I go on about who has all those elements in their favor, I’d like to point out that the Heat and the 76ers have split the regular season series 2-2. However, the last two games were won by the Heat, as the red-hot 76ers were trending as a team that had the best winning streak in the NBA.

Can the Heat use this to their advantage to build confidence on the road and steal Game 1? Absolutely.

However, it won’t be easy.

The 76ers feature a superstar in the making in Ben Simmons, who’s a triple-double waiting to happen. Simmons has thrived in the absence of center Joel Embiid, who’s been ruled out for Saturday.

However, if there’s a flaw in Simmons’ game, it’s that he can’t shoot from outside of 18-24 feet (54 percent from the field which is mostly layups and dunks). And his one 3-point attempt and 56 percent shooting from the free throw line would suggest that part of his game hasn’t arrived yet, nor is he comfortable with that part of his basketball repertoire.

Those shortcomings could come back to haunt Simmons (in the fourth quarter, in particular) and the 76ers. Not just tonight, but maybe in this series, depending on how long Embiid is out (because he can help shoulder the load, scoring wise).

What the 76ers will try to do versus the Heat

Simmons wants to run the floor, attack the paint and create a high uptempo/fast paced game, while also trying to space the floor by passing the ball. This is his greatest asset, to his shooters; JJ Redick (42 percent from 3-point range), Robert Covington (37 percent from 3-point range), Dario Saric (39 percent from 3-point range), and Marco Belinelli (37 percent from 3-point range).

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, Markelle Fultz has given the 76ers a spark off the bench with his athleticism, playmaking ability, and his knack to create for others. However, Fultz is a liability from 18-24 feet, shooting 40 percent from the field and 47 percent from the free throw line.

What the Heat must do to counter the 76ers

Guard the shooters, slow the game down, get fellow bigs involved early in; Hassan Whiteside (attack inside the paint/shot blocking and rebounding) Kelly Olynyk (playmaking ability, rebounding and outside 3-point shooting at 38 percent).

Goran Dragic must be in attack mode while creating for others and Wayne Ellington has to let it fly at 39 percent from downtown. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow have to show up on the offensive end, but most importantly, on the defensive end (and on the glass, rebounding wise).

James Johnson has to step up. His four points scored in the last two meetings versus the 76ers, although both wins, left much to be desired. Johnson needs to have his shot selection under control while showcasing his playmaking ability, rebounding, elite level defense when he’s locked-in and attack the basket at will ( with no shot blocker to contest Johnson on the 76ers).

Tyler Johnson must use his athleticism to his advantage and attack the basket at will, while giving relentless effort on defense and playing the passing lanes for steals. Johnson, who’s making about 37 percent of his shots from 3-point range, needs to knock down any 3-point opportunities that come his way.

Bam Adebayo needs to play his game; rebounding, diving for 50/50 balls, defense and get out and guard the pick and roll on the perimeter. As well as finish lobs from Dwyane Wade. Speaking of “Father Prime,” he’s the closer down the stretch and in the fourth quarter, and his leadership and experience will pay huge dividends.

Why the Miami Heat will win Game 1 versus the Philadelphia 76ers

Miami has experience in their favor versus the 76ers’ inexperience, and they match up well against the 76ers. The Heat have a Hall-of-Fame closer in Wade.

Who’s the closer on the 76ers? It’s yet to be determined. The playoffs are all about getting defensive stops down the stretch, composure in close games, execution, winning the turnover battle, and hitting key free throws and shots, when the pressure mounts the most.

Next: Miami Heat: First round success lies within the Embiid-Whiteside rivalry

The Heat are a scrappy team that will fight tooth and nail to change the outcome in their favor. The 76ers’ 16-game winning streak comes to an end on Saturday and the Heat steal Game 1 on the road.