What’s expected from the Miami Heat’s free agency period?
How much can the Miami Heat accomplish in free agency?
The legalization of sports betting has opened channels for a great American pastime but has done little for the Miami Heat.
Hours from now, the Heat will become one of 30 teams allowed to make moves for new roster additions, though predicting Miami’s exact options is a major and likely unprofitable gamble.
Unlike seasons past, in which Miami has relied on its star power (read: Dwyane Wade) to attract free agents and build teams, the team has little in the way of well-connected players who can cause another four-year (or more) revolution in the NBA.
The Heat have also been modest with regards to announcing which players have (to reach into Adrian Wojnarowski’s vocabulary) tantalized them. Team president Pat Riley is incredibly vocal in what he does and doesn’t value, but hasn’t explicitly named dropped. Veteran players with a winning mindset are always a plus, while draft picks and tanking are generally avoided at all costs.
Half of that manifesto was fulfilled this year, with Miami having access to exactly zero picks during the 2018 draft. Riley and company however can further push their ideology when the big hand strikes 12 tonight and NBA free agency begins.
What then, are Miami’s free agent guarantees? Considering they are already tied into paying heaps of money for a team limited to the Eastern Conference first round, lowering expectations would be a fantastic exercise.
Riley can certainly surprise Heat Nation (a LeBron James reunion would be the best thing since, well, 2010) but maneuvering around the checkbook with workable deals will be a task likely held off until 2019 at least.
Return of the Mack
The Heat do have at least one thing written in the stars for tonight.
Without action on July 1, Rodney McGruder’s contract will be guaranteed for the upcoming 2018-19 NBA season. McGruder played just 18 games this season with Miami, missing time to a stress fracture in his left leg.
Though McGruder’s contributions were limited, his continued presence in Miami follows the Heat mold of positionless play. Only 6-foot-4, McGruder has fit into both the shooting guard and small forward roles, serving as the latter for much of the 2016-17 campaign.
"“Rodney was on his way,” head coach Erik Spoelstra told the Sun Sentinel. “He was probably the most productive player in training camp and through the beginning of preseason – and he had basically 80 percent of his regular season taken away from him and then a totally different role than probably he anticipated and probably what he certainly was going to earn based on his offseason and the beginning of the season.”"
Turning 27 later in July, McGruder’s return is also a safeguard for the potential to lose Wayne Ellington in free agency. Miami’s best shooter by far, Ellington’s performance this season will have offers rolling in, attempting to book his flight out of Miami International Airport.
McGruder somewhat quells that scenario, providing the Heat a trusted guard who could develop into a similar catch-and-shoot asset.
50 percent of McGruder’s shots were catch-and-shoot attempts through 78 games in the 2016-17 regular season, on which he hit 33 and 34 percent from inside and beyond the arc respectively.
A regular in the Heat locker room and a veteran of Miami’s brand of rehab, McGruder might be the baseline for the Heat’s basketball insurance plan next season. His $1.5 million salary for next season is also a team benefit, making his continued growth an incredible bargain.
Who’s next?
Beyond McGruder however, expect Miami’s free agency moves to be support oriented at best.
Miami’s biggest contract players Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson had difficult seasons, making worthwhile trades an unlikely possibility.
Miami’s next season could develop one of two ways. Barring a show-stopping, eight-team-miracle trade, Miami could spend 2018-19 as a developmental hub, empowering its youth to make the jump to super stardom.
In addition to Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and Bam Adebayo, the Heat have brought back Derrick Jones Jr. and Derrick Walton Jr., allowing for another season of two-way contracts.
Jones is already a supreme athlete and harnessing his raw talent could yield a contributor in the vein of Gerald Green. Walton has less of a reputation, though as a point guard he could bloom into a replacement for Goran Dragic when his free agency comes in 2020.
Miami’s other option this season is to offer a home for veteran’s trying to revive their careers.
Tyreke Evans had such an opportunity this season with the Memphis Grizzlies. He re-established himself as a competent scorer and will likely earn a modest payout on a team looking for buckets.
While Wade is expected to take Miami’s mid-level exception for $5.4 million, rounding up another veteran on a minimum deal could continue the Heat’s brand of holistic player development.
Among available names, Mario Chalmers, formerly of Heat championship fame, is back on the free agent market at midnight. Organizing a reunion could prove useful in teaching Miami’s core about playing alongside stars as role players, a useful lesson if the Heat can pick up an All-Star in the future.
For this summer, Miami’s outlook is paved by a grin-and-bear-it outlook. The Heat didn’t hit a stride this season as they did in 2016-17, but to their credit, injuries kept a steady rotation from ever coming to fruition.
Next: Is it now impossible for LeBron James to join the Miami Heat?
Miami might not make the free agent splash fans were hoping for, but the team is returning enough healthy pieces this season to offer a new look in 2018-19.