With no major moves made this offseason, are the Miami Heat bound for the same destiny?
Heat Nation hasn’t been too pleased this offseason.
The Miami Heat have been unable to make any major moves. On top of that, the team’s social media team recently added onto the disappointment of fans by teasing some “Big News,” which in reality was just the release of their 2018-19 schedule.
Perhaps not the best move.
Heat executive Michael McCullough apologized soon after though, stating that they “misread the moment”.
Once the season starts of course, this will all be water under the bridge.
The Heat’s main objective will turn from apologizing for misreading the moment, to apologizing that ESPN misread the team.
Ira Winderman shared ESPN’s staff prediction for the Heat this season, which placed them seventh in the Eastern Conference, with a 43-39 record.
ESPN staff prediction for Heat is 43-39 and seventh in East: "When re-signing Wayne Ellington is your big summer splash, it's going to be hard to generate voter confidence. Miami won 44 games last season, and our panel doesn't expect much change."
— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) August 14, 2018
The main reason for this prediction was obviously the fact that Miami hasn’t made any moves.
Seems pretty logical.
Last season, the Heat finished 44-38 and sixth in the East. Returning the same squad should reap similar results, right?
Unfortunately, this only makes sense on a surface level.
Miami will have the same names on the roster this upcoming season. Does that mean they are returning the same team? If you watched the Heat closely last season, the answer is no.
Almost every player on the Heat’s roster battled some type of injury. Josh Richardson was the closest to playing every game last season, before a left foot injury held him out.
Hassan Whiteside spent plenty of time out thanks to multiple bone bruises, Justise Winslow also bruised his knee, Tyler Johnson missed time for various occasions and Dion Waiters played in only 30 games before having to undergo season-ending surgery.
James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington and even Dwyane Wade in his short time with the team, missed game time due to injuries.
While many weren’t happy with the ever-revolving door of minutes between players that head coach Erik Spoelstra was forced to juggle, with so many injuries, the Heat made the most of what they could.
So with all circumstances considered, the Heat had a relatively successful season.
To put it into perspective, the Heat played all 19 players on their roster multiple times. Nine players started 19 or more games, and all played well over 1,000 minutes each.
For the Heat to replicate last season’s results, even with the same roster, they would have to replicate the number of injuries and inconsistent minutes that came with the season.
In other words, as the players get healthier and back into their consistent roles, Miami is much better than a 44-win team.