When will the Miami Heat rebuild?
Tanking. Throwing. Strategic mismanagement of personnel.
Whatever it’s called, losing a lot of games is usually the predecessor for an organizational rebuild.
The Heat haven’t yet hit the lows of the Phoenix Suns or Atlanta Hawks.
On the contrary, they’ve been in the playoffs in two of the last four seasons, narrowly missing out on 2016-17 thanks to a tie breaker.
But in those same four seasons, Miami hasn’t convinced the league of the team’s potential.
Whereas the Philadelphia 76ers have transitioned from bottom of the barrel to title contenders, the Heat have been coasting along, finding moderate success, but failing to leave a lasting mark.
So, fans are well within their rights to question when the rebuild will happen.
Starting from scratch is far from enjoyable, but collecting consecutive seasons of average play grows tiresome by the day.
Most of Miami’s core is on the books through 2020. That’s at least two more seasons of fielding essentially the same, sixth placed Eastern Conference team.
With key players like Goran Dragic, James Johnson and Wayne Ellington only getting older – Dragic turns 33 next May, Johnson hits 32 in February and Ellington celebrates his 31st this November – Miami is effectively in cruise control.
Older players won’t attract the free agent or trade whale Riley often seeks, and aging play is counterintuitive to supporting the core of Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo and Josh Richardson.
Though Riley is vehemently against tanking, and, with the rule changes ahead of the 2019 draft no longer favoring total ineptitude, finding a way to sneak into the draft and shed salary could be a healthy option.
In 2007-08, just two seasons removed from a championship, the Heat tied for the worst record in franchise history, managing just 15 wins.
That season, instead of waiting out the failing relationship with Shaquille O’Neal, Miami bit the bullet on trading him. The team’s loss of O’Neal ultimately granted Miami a No. 2 overall selection in the 2008 Draft, which became Michael Beasley.
Beasley didn’t become the star Miami was hoping for, but his acquisition was immensely helpful to freeing up the Heat’s checkbook when reorganizing the roster after signing LeBron James.
Sending Beasely to Minnesota for next to nothing provided flexibility when signing Mike Miller in July 2010, who would become an immediate fixture in Miami’s finals runs.
Now, rather than waiting out contracts, hoping for good will, maybe it’s time for the Heat to hold a fire sale, burning off excess cap holds while refurbishing the lineup on their own terms.
There’s no guarantee that another Big Three situation pops up, but having the flexibility to find the perfect pieces could be the difference between suffering through first round exits and finding the next winning combination.