The Miami Heat are currently 26-30, coming off a solid win against the Dallas Mavericks as they come back from All-Star break.
However, the Miami Heat did go through a rough 1-3 road trip before that Dallas win, it started out positive with what seemed like a big-time win in Portland, Miami then followed up with three straight L’s. One could still be encouraged, however, as the losses were to an upstart Sacramento King’s squad who are on a hot streak shooting the ball, and then the number 1 and 2 teams in the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors, and Denver Nuggets.
That doesn’t seem to be the sentiment among Heat nation though, where for the most part, it seems to be leaning more toward shooting for the lottery, rather than the still more than attainable 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. So, should the Miami Heat start thinking about the NBA Draft Lottery? The abbreviated answer here is NO, absolutely not, negative.
Keep reading for the elongated version:
When immediately thinking about the “draft lottery” and the Miami Heat organization, the first thing that comes to mind is Pat Riley. After all, he is the general manager, otherwise known as the guy who buys the groceries in South Beach. In that respect, anyone the least bit familiar with how he has operated in the past or currently for that matter knows that the draft just isn’t his thing. Not that he doesn’t believe in it totally (see Justice Winslow, Bam Adebayo, and Josh Richardson), it’s just that he doesn’t think that’s the only correct way to build or re-build a basketball team.
The next thing that comes to mind in this equation are the playoffs themselves. Although the Miami Heat would have a ton of ground to make up in order to crack a top 5 seed, there are only 5 games between wins & losses that separate the Heat from the 6th seeded Brooklyn Nets right now. Save for the fact that the Heat have played three fewer games, and they have yet to fully gel due to injury and a fluctuating roster, making it to 6 is absolutely attainable.
Critics will say “for what, what does a 6th-8th seed get you besides a first-round date and exit at the hands of a top 3 seed?” The answer here is simple. The Miami Heat culture means that this team will play hard, and regardless of what everyone else is doing, they play to WIN the games. Tanking is a sign of throwing in the towel, at least for that year, and that isn’t the culture the Miami Heat built. To start tanking now, would contradict everything Heat Nation has been sold over the years, and I can’t see them going down that path.
Even furthering down this road, what does the draft lottery really mean anyway? If you tell me that it means the “opportunity to get a top player”, I’ll ask is that a guarantee? You’ll say the chances there are higher, but I’ll then rebut with an “are they?” In case you question the validity of the prior questions and/or statements, I implore you to take into consideration the following.
The NBA draft guarantee’s nothing, plain and simple.
Anyone ever heard of the “Iceman?” Perhaps George Gervin rings a better bell? He was drafted at number 40. In case that’s a bit too retro for some of you all, how about Manu Ginobli or Michael Redd, drafted 57th and 43rd overall respectively. Still too far in the past for some of you? OK, take this, for example, one Kyle Kuzma. Arguably, and more likely than not the second best player on the Lakers roster at the moment, Kuzma was drafted at no. 27. Bet there are at least 25 other teams that would like a do-over, probably even these Miami Heat (shoutout to Bam though because he is appreciated & a prototypical HEAT GUY).
What this means is that you are just as likely to find a future star outside of the lottery, as you are in the lottery, if not more likely. It’s a number’s game, especially in this “analytical” world we live in today (which is another topic for another day), where you have 3/4’s of a draft not being “lottery picks.” In this same light, are you guys familiar with the legend of Markelle Fultz? The former no. 1 overall pick of the mighty……..Orlando Magic? That’s right, because he was traded by his original team this past week when the Philadelphia 76ers shipped his rights to the Orlando Magic.
So, if even having the first overall pick doesn’t guarantee you a flat out star, what does the lottery really mean? It doesn’t mean a thing if the picks or pickers are bad, and if the picks or pickers are good at what they do, it doesn’t matter where they pick. If you know anything about the Heat and are a true fan of this particular team, you know that losing on purpose isn’t even an option. You would also know that for the core of young guys the Heat have, winning whenever you can be the mission, for that’s what eventually breeds winners. Go support the Suns if you want to be fine with losing. By all means, because if things are the way they have always been, this organization is only thinking about winning the next game.