All U Can Heat
Fansided

Miami Heat: A look ahead at the Heat’s playoff odds

By Duncan Smith

MIAMI, FL - MARCH 10: Head Coach Erik Spoelstra of the Miami Heat and Dwyane Wade #3 react during the game against the Toronto Raptors on March 10, 2019 at American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - MARCH 10: Head Coach Erik Spoelstra of the Miami Heat and Dwyane Wade #3 react during the game against the Toronto Raptors on March 10, 2019 at American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

With just 16 games left in the regular season, the pressure is on the Miami Heat to hold on to their playoff spot. We’ll look at how some projections view their chances.

The Miami Heat have battled their way back to the Eastern Conference’s eight seed with 16 games to go, but they face stiff competition from the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets who both trail the Heat by just one game in the standings.

Considering how tight the race is for the final playoff spot, it’s safe to say the winner of this race will come down to some combination of softest schedule, health, overall good luck and whoever gets the hottest.

We’ll take a look at how ESPN’s BPI and FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projections forecast the fates of these three rivals.

Per BPI, the Heat have a 43.8 percent shot at the playoffs, behind the Magic at 55.9 percent. BPI projects both teams to finish with the same record at 38-44, but the Magic currently have a 2-1 record versus the Heat in head-to-head action, and the Magic also have a better divisional record, giving them the tiebreaker edge over the Heat if they do finish with the same record.

The Hornets are projected to finish 36-46, but they have the head-to-head and divisional record edges over the Heat as well, meaning that finishing tied for eight with either the Hornets or the Magic would result in the Miami Heat missing the playoffs.

As for FiveThirtyEight, the scenario there is even more stark. The Heat have a 29 percent shot at the playoffs in their CARMELO projections, with the Magic well ahead at 68 percent. In this forecast, the Magic are projected to go 39-43 with the Heat going 37-45 and missing the playoffs in ninth place.

This is complicated by the fact that per Tankathon.com, the Heat have the seventh-toughest schedule left, facing a combined winning percentage of 54.3 percent. The Hornets have the eighth-toughest at 53.5 percent. The Magic have the easiest of the bunch by far with the third-easiest schedule at 45.7 percent and a plethora of actively tanking opponents left to play.

Next. Concerns grow over the Heat's 3-point defense. dark

With 39 wins being the high-point cutoff for both projection systems for the eight seed, it stands to reason that with 40 wins the Heat could fairly safely expect to make the playoffs. That won’t be easy with a difficult schedule, and that combined with having no tie-breaker advantages will make the Miami Heat’s battle for the eighth and final playoff spot a difficult one indeed.

Home/Heat News