Miami Heat: Why the playoff picture is getting a bit blurry

The Miami Heat lost a game to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday night that could prove to be fatal to their playoff hopes. What does the path to a playoff berth look like now?

According to ESPN, after Tuesday night’s defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic, the Miami Heat now only have a 41 percent chance of making the playoffs. These are not necessarily good odds, but they aren’t impossible.

In looking at the teams that are fighting and clawing for those last three seeds in the Eastern Conference, some paths make for slightly easier travel than others. To be clear, the fight for the sixth, seventh, and eighth seeds will be a dog fight.

To start with the Miami Heat, their remaining schedule goes as such: the Dallas Mavericks, at the New York Knicks, at the Boston Celtics, the Boston Celtics, at the Minnesota Timberwolves, at the Toronto Raptors, the  Philadelphia 76ers, and lastly at the Brooklyn Nets. It can be reasonably estimated that at worst they should go 4-4, after all they have been about a .500 team. At worst they could go 2-6, which would be awful.

The Brooklyn Nets, who are currently the sixth seed have a remaining schedule that sees them at the 76ers, the Celtics, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Raptors, at the Bucks, at the Indiana Pacers, and the Miami Heat of course. Although they have been playing well as of late, especially All-Star guard D’Angelo Russell, they could reasonably go 2-5 in these final games, and at best should go 3-4.

If you take a look at the Detroit Pistons, who currently occupy the seventh seed in the East, their remaining schedule looks like this. They have the Orlando Magic, the Portland Trail Blazers, at the Indiana Pacers, the Indiana Pacers, at the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Charlotte Hornets, the Memphis Grizzlies, and lastly at the New York Knicks. At best, the Pistons should go 5-3, while at worst they should go 2-5.

In the Orlando Magic’s case, who reclaimed the eighth seed from the Heat with their win on Tuesday, they have remaining: at the Detroit Pistons, at the Indiana Pacers, at the Toronto Raptors, the New York Knicks, the Atlanta Hawks, at the Boston Celtics, and at the Charlotte Hornets. At best they should go 4-3, and at worst they should go 3-3.

In looking at the remaining schedules for each team vying for those final three slots in the East, something that sticks out is that they do play each other a few times within those stretches. In these projections, it would seem that the Pistons are the odd team out, but who knows with the way things have played out thus far.

The Miami Heat squandered away the opportunity to control their own fate by losing on Tuesday to the Orlando Magic, but could still do themselves justice by going better than .500 in their final 8 games. This all starts on Thursday against super rookie Luka Doncic, as he and the Dallas Mavericks come to South Beach. For the playoffs sake, the Miami Heat need to take care of their business here, and throughout the rest of the season.

If not, it will be a long off season and Dwyane Wade‘s One Last Dance may be one that ends in heartbreak.