The Miami Heat have a chance to climb as high as the sixth seed in the playoffs. How closely should the team watch the standings?
If the playoffs began today, the Miami Heat would be the only sub-.500 team. The playoffs don’t begin today, but if they did, that’d be the case.
Being the only team without a winning record in the playoffs is a blessing. It’s like being the only guy at work who failed to meet his sales quota but gets the same Christmas bonus as everyone else.
A losing record is a badge of honor. The NBA doesn’t punish the worst team in the playoffs. There are no special rules for the eighth seeded team. Well, there is a good chance of getting swept by the first seed, but otherwise, all playoff teams have essentially the same playing field.
This season, the Heat are too good to tank and too bad to get home court advantage. Miami exists in the mellifluous middle of the Eastern Conference jockeying for position somewhere between the sixth and eighth spots.
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If the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets keep up their losing ways, the Heat could well be on their way to the 21st post-season appearance. Maybe Miami jumps as high as the sixth seed and enters a 2018 Playoff rematch against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Or maybe, the Heat embrace the eighth seed.
Unless you are a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in forever—see the 2017-18 Minnesota Timberwolves or this year’s Sacramento Kings—there aren’t many reasons to make a run at the eighth seed. The lower a team places, the harder the match ups become, at least in theory.
However, for teams that regularly play into April, like Miami, the seed is nothing but a number. But understanding exactly why seeding doesn’t matter, especially for the Heat, requires a trip back to 2016.
The 2016 NBA Playoffs were a logjam. Four teams in the Eastern Conference—the Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets—all finished with 48 wins and 34 losses. Though the Hawks earned a playoff berth as early as March 29, the final seeds weren’t confirmed until Atlanta fell to the Washington Wizards on April 13, the last day of the regular season
Conspiracy theories would suggest that the losses suffered that night were all calculated. The Hawks were equipped to knock off the Wizards, so why did they seemingly throw the third quarter? Similarly, how did the Celtics ignite a 40-10 run to knock off the Heat?
The teams must have checked scores at halftime and jockeying for their final seeds, right?
While that’s possible—stranger things have happened—Miami would advance to the Eastern Semi-Finals in those 2016 playoffs but were ultimately left unsated by a Game 7 loss to the Toronto Raptors.
In other words, all that game-planning was for naught.
In a recent post-game interview, Doc Rivers discussed how little teams care about playoff match ups. But you and I know that’s hogwash. If that was the case, NBA teams wouldn’t be staffed to the hilt with analytics guys, training guys and all other manner of employees to game plan every possible situation like they were Dr. Strange.
But for Miami, strategizing each game with an ulterior motive isn’t part of the team’s ever-idealized “culture.” The same reason the Heat wouldn’t tank for a shot at Zion Williamson is the same reason they aren’t perusing the standings for ideal matchups.
It all ends up being a crapshoot.
Earlier this month, Spoelstra talked about Miami’s mindset entering the playoffs.
"“I don’t care. I don’t care. I don’t care,” Spoelstra told the Miami Herald about sitting players for playoff seeding. “Teams and organizations can do whatever they want. We’re not part of their organizations. We’re not going to decide for them who they’re going to play or not play, nor should we have any kind of feeling about it.”"
For now, Miami is content on giving its fans a good showing and honoring Wade’s legacy. There will be a special ceremony for Wade prior to the last Heat home game at against the Sixers, but that’s about the only thing that’s planned for the rest of the year.
“Competition is who you’re playing and what you’re going to do in that game,” Spoelstra said. The rest of the story is written while the ball is in the air.