The Miami Heat enter the 2019-20 offseason short on capable ball-handlers, and they could get even shorter. Should the Heat take a flyer on Emmanuel Mudiay?
The Miami Heat had an underwhelming season. They were riddled with injuries from the start and struggled to get and stay healthy throughout the whole campaign, and even when at full strength the offense was generally impotent.
The Heat had the fifth-worst offense in the NBA, scoring just 104.6 points per 100 possessions, ahead of only the Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. It’s really thanks almost entirely to their defense that they even had a chance to sniff the playoff race.
It’s not hard to see why the Heat offense was so anemic. They had the absolute worst pick-and-roll production in the NBA from their ball-handlers, scoring just .754 points per possession in one of the highest-volume play-types in the league. They were 24th in transition, the easiest and highest efficiency way to score, at 1.065 points per possession, and they were just 29th in isolation scoring at .78 points per possession.
Much of this comes from the fact that the Miami Heat are largely bereft of capable ball-handlers, and those they do have are wildly inefficient. Justise Winslow was the starting point guard for a great deal of the season, and he was one of the worst high (or even medium) volume scorers in the pick-and-roll across the whole league.
Emmanuel Mudiay is a player the Heat could consider pursuing in free agency who could help improve some of these woeful marks. Mudiay scored .887 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, good enough for the 66th percentile. It’s not a superstar mark, but it’s an eye-popping improvement on what the Heat put up all season and could make a difference.
He will be entering restricted free agency, meaning that assuming his team, the New York Knicks, extends him a qualifying offer, his team can match any offer from another team and he would have to remain with his current team.
Mudiay has had an uneven start to his career, but the book is far from written on the 23-year-old as point guard is perhaps the position that takes the longest for a young player to find proficiency.
This being the case, and considering that the Knicks are inclined to keep as much salary space free as possible as they’re expected to court both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in free agency, the Heat might be able to pay beyond what the Knicks are willing to match if they offer some or all of their $9.2 million mid-level exception.
Mudiay might be able to provide a scoring jolt for one of the least-impressive offenses in the NBA, and his services may be acquired for a reasonable salary. If the price is right, the Miami Heat should see if they can make a deal this summer.