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Miami Heat: Odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery, which pick is most likely

By Duncan Smith

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, Mark Tatum announces the Miami Heat's 14th pick during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 16: Deputy Commissioner of the NBA, Mark Tatum announces the Miami Heat's 14th pick during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The day of reckoning is upon us as the NBA Draft Lottery nears. We’ll look at the chances for the Miami Heat to win the lottery, and where their most likely pick lies.

We’ve almost made it to the next big day of the NBA season for the 14 teams who missed the playoffs. It’s NBA Draft Lottery day, and we’ll see the final draft order before the night is out. Most importantly, we’ll see where the Miami Heat will be picking.

With the 13th lottery slot, the Heat will be long shots at winning the lottery and getting the first overall pick. In fact, they’ll have just a 1.0 percent chance at the top pick and (almost certainly) Zion Williamson. Of course, stranger things have happened, but not much stranger in NBA history.

Their chances improve slightly as the picks descend, as they’ll have a 1.1 percent chance at the second pick, a 1.2 percent chance at the third pick and a 1.4 percent chance at the fourth pick. A 4.7 percent shot at a top-four selection isn’t nothing, but it’s close. It would also be the first time in team history they’ve moved up in the lottery.

Beyond the chances for the Miami Heat to move up, there are more likely possibilities in play. They’re massive favorites to stick right where they are at 13 with 90.6 percent chance to maintain the status quo, and the worst case scenario is that they drop to 14, which will happen 4.6 percent of the time.

All these numbers may end up seeming most abstract indeed when the lottery begins. Thanks to reformed lottery odds, more teams have a better chance of moving up in the lottery, and the worst teams have been reduced from 25 percent odds at best to just 14 percent, with the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and the Phoenix Suns all sharing those odds.

Regardless of whether the Heat move up or not, there is potential for historic levels of chaos at the top of the lottery, and considering how very top-heavy the incoming draft class is (with Zion Williamson being a virtual lock for No. 1, and then the rest), that unprecedented disorder could make for a wild night in Chicago.

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The NBA Draft Lottery will begin at 8:30 PM EST, and with any luck the Miami Heat and their representative Alonzo Mourning will be hearing their name called a couple of commercial breaks thereafter.

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