How FiveThirtyEight’s projections think the Miami Heat will do this season
By Duncan Smith
Not long ago the Miami Heat were projected to win only 43 games. Things have changed quickly as the Heat have surged out of the gate, so let’s take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s updated projections.
Most reliable win total projections had the Miami Heat in the low 40s this summer, even after trading for Jimmy Butler. It turns out those projections sorely underrated the supporting cast and never even saw some of them coming. Bam Adebayo has taken a leap, and Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson have been absolute diamonds in the rough, and that’s changed everything.
The Heat are 18-6 through 24 games and have been nearly untouchable at home where they have an 11-0 record. Naturally, we can quite comfortably update our expectations for the team when they’re on a pace well over 50 wins.
FiveThirtyEight’s projections have a glittering outlook for them, compared to those preseason forecasts. At this point, their Elo model (explained here) projects the Miami Heat to go 54-28 and finish in a tie for fourth in the Eastern Conference with the Philadelphia 76ers. FiveThirtEight gives them a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, a seven percent chance at making the NBA Finals and a three percent chance of winning the championship.
ESPN’s BPI playoff odds are similarly favorable, although they don’t have such high hopes for the Heat’s Finals chances. They are a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99 percent, but only 1.1 percent to win the championship.
This is in spite of getting virtually nothing from James Johnson, who has played only six games, and literally nothing from the embattled Dion Waiters. Both Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow have battled injuries since the beginning of the season, as is tradition.
The Heat have gotten surprising production with seven players averaging double-digit scoring, and the current starting backcourt of Nunn and Robinson were both a long shot to even be regular contributors in the rotation before the season started.
dark. Next. Jimmy Butler's first Player Of The Week award with the Heat
Preseason forecasts can be forgiven for not seeing this coming. In fact, it’s safe to say nobody saw this coming. It’s so surprising that we can throw out preseason projections entirely and embrace this new reality.