Earlier this week Kendrick Perkins mentioned Jimmy Butler had a case for MVP on ESPN’s The Jump. Does the Miami Heat star belong in the discussion?
This holiday season, Kendrick Perkins remains the gift that keeps giving for Miami Heat fans. After talking about a revelation from Kendrick Nunn‘s agent that the majority of NBA GMs didn’t see him as an NBA player, he made a point of inserting Jimmy Butler into the MVP conversation.
You can check out the clip below, and the Butler for MVP campaign begins at the 3:40 mark.
Of course, MVPs tend to only come from teams in the top two or three seeds in their conference (Russell Westbrook‘s MVP aside). Right off the bat, that’s a possible mark in Butler’s favor as the Miami Heat are currently tied with the Boston Celtics for second in the Eastern Conference.
Beyond that, there are some metrics we need to look to for guidance regarding his viability on the ballot, if not for the award itself. After all, he’s facing off against players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden who are both sure to have historic seasons, to say nothing of LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
So, sad to say, Jimmy Butler is not likely to win the 2019-20 MVP award, regardless of the impact he’s had on his Miami Heat teammates. However, he certainly has a case to be on the ballot in the top five names, and he has likely carved out a case to get votes case his direction.
A look at Basketball Reference’s MVP award tracker reveals a succinct look at where he currently stands, and there’s room for him to get even better.
Butler is currently sixth behind the aforementioned names (MVP voters cast votes for their top five candidates) with a 1.5 percent chance to win. This is behind James and Davis, who have 7.3 and 6.1 percent respectively. Of course, this is an algorithm based projection, and if there’s one thing we know about basketball award voters, it’s that they don’t use algorithms.
This means if they both continue to play at the level they’re at, voters will likely be split because they are teammates with the Los Angeles Lakers. But if one of them misses time or their play lags, the other is likely to drop off the ballot quickly which gives Butler room to move up the rankings.
Perhaps more notably, instead of counting on external forces dictating whether he climbs the ladder, a great deal rests in his own hands. Butler has had this tremendous all-around impact in spite of the fact that he’s shooting the ball at near-career worst levels.
So far this season he’s shooting just 43.6 percent from the floor and 28.2 percent from 3-point range. His corresponding effective field goal percentage of 46.9 percent is better than only his rookie and third season, the first year he became a full-time regular player.
Should he regain some of the shooting of years past, Jimmy Butler might be able to improve his standing all by himself after all.