Using NBA 2K20 to predict Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat

The Miami Heat play host to the visiting Toronto Raptors at American Airlines Arena on Thursday. What does NBA 2K20 have to say about the matchup?

Happy New Year, Heat Nation. We’ve been running this 2K simulation prediction series for seven games now, and it is with regret I announce that we finally got one wrong. We predicted at the end of the decade, the Miami Heat would win big against the short-handed Washington Wizards, but the team fell for the trap game and lost 123-105.

With that being said, Miami is still sitting pretty with the third seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the Indiana Pacers beating the brakes off of rival Philadelphia 76ers. Question: Is it too soon to call this a rivalry? Oh, well. I’m doing it anyway. A win tonight will put further separation between Miami and Toronto, who are already separated by a game and a half as of the writing of this piece.

Something to note: Even if no games are played tomorrow, don’t take too much stock in the seeding right this second. Currently, the Boston Celtics have played two fewer games than the Miami Heat. The NBA standings are calculated by win percentage first and foremost. With the Celtics having the lighter schedule, the league has sort of inflated their status in the conference accidentally. The way I see it, even if the Heat win tonight, they would stay stuck behind the Celtics due to winning percentage even though they technically won’t be tied in the “games back” column anymore.

The Raptors come into this game with a litany of injuries, but the proposition still stands for the Miami Heat: Is this another trap game? According to Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel, the Raptors will be a bit short-handed tonight in Miami.

I expanded the Heat’s rotation to ten players and distributed the minutes to mimic the action each player saw during Monday night’s loss against the Washington Wizards. Afterward, I headed over to the coaching tab and moved up Coach Spoelstra’s run zone tendency from five percent to 50 percent. I also changed Bam Adebayo’s secondary position to power forward since Meyers Leonard’s positions look that way. Lastly, I edited Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Adebayo’s vitals to allow them to initiate the offense.

If you want to see the simulation for yourself, check out the latest video on my YouTube channel. There I’ll be showing you the adjustments I made.

Starting Lineup

Toronto Raptors

Point guard, Fred VanVleet

Shooting guard, Kyle Lowry

Small forward, Patrick McCaw

Power forward, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Center, Serge Ibaka

Miami Heat

Point guard, Kendrick Nunn

Shooting guard, Duncan Robinson

Small forward, Jimmy Butler

Power forward, Bam Adebayo

Center, Meyers Leonard

Outcome

This game was a classic take of Miami Heat basketball these days. Yes, some players did their thing. Yes, they had a big lead over an opponent they were supposed to beat. And yes, they gave up that lead. The only thing different about this year’s Heat team is they have the talent to hold on to the win for dear life. Final score 102-97

Miami gained the lead early in the first quarter and didn’t trail at any point in the contest, but It wasn’t as simple as that. At half time, Jimmy Butler already had 23 points, which is not characteristic of his time spent in South Beach so far. It was at this moment I knew to buckle my seatbelt because I was in for a bumpy ride.

The game was eerily close in the second half, and I was on the edge of my seat. Miami ended up losing the third quarter, and Toronto pulled to within five points. The lead hovered around this differential for the rest of the game. Although the Heat pulled it out, I saw while reviewing the stats at the end of the game that they were trying to their hardest to give the game away as they squandered a 21 point lead.

Toronto ended up shooting better than Miami from the field, the 3-point line, and the charity stripe. The only thing that saved the win was the sheer amount of free throw attempts Miami was awarded. The Heat went 27-for-36 on the night while Toronto only went to the line nine times. Sure, they weren’t fouling as much, but they weren’t getting any stops either. Lastly, the turnover bug reared its ugly head for a grand total of 18. That would’ve marked the 14th time this season the team committed more than the league average 15 turnovers in a game. Eventually, they’re going to have to find a solution for that.

Player Stats

Toronto Raptors

Serge Ibaka – 24 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks

Kyle Lowry – 16 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist

OG Anunoby – 12 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block

Terrance Davis – 11 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler – 38 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block

Bam Adebayo – 20 points, 20 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks

Goran Dragić – 16 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal

Duncan Robinson – 12 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks

Tyler Herro – 8 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal

Dishonorable mentions:

Meyers Leonard  2-for-11

Kendrick Nunn  0-for-5

Derrick Jones Jr. 0-for-4 (gobbled up ten boards though)

The Heat have some glaring issues to fix if they wish to make big-time noise in the playoffs season. These simulations aren’t the gospel, but they are a very close representation of what the real-life Heat are doing, and they need help. With 36 days remaking until the NBA trade deadline, I’ll keep my eyes peeled and update rosters if Heat president Pat Riley decides to make any moves. Until then, I’ll take these narrow victories. Remember, wins are better than no wins.