Using NBA 2K20 to predict the Miami Heat vs the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Miami Heat travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. What does NBA 2K20 have to say about the matchup?

The Miami Heat gets back on the road after a hard-fought 106-100 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night. The Heat has been outstanding at home but positively dismal when they play on the road, and their next test will be on Friday night against Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

In our ongoing NBA 2K20 game-day preview series, we turn to Sunday afternoon’s game between the Heat and Spurs. The Heat bring their 28-12 record on the road to face the 23-18 Thunder.

We’ve been predicting game outcomes for the Heat using NBA 2K20 for almost a month, and for better or worse to this point, we’ve only got three games incorrect. Once again we’ll look to the advanced predictive powers of NBA 2K to get an idea of what to expect in this game between the Heat and Spurs.

First, the ground rules. We modified the Thunder lineup to reflect their rotation and minutes from their last game, a 130-121 loss to the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. As for the Heat, we’ll follow their minutes and rotation as closely as possible relative to their past few games.

To reflect the Heat’s defensive tendencies, we moved up head coach Erik Spoelstra’s run zone tendency from five percent to 50 percent. We also changed Bam Adebayo’s secondary position to power forward since Meyers Leonard’s positions look that way. Lastly, we edited Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Adebayo’s vitals to allow them to initiate the offense.

Starting lineups

Miami Heat

Point guard, Kendrick Nunn

Shooting guard, Duncan Robinson

Small forward, Jimmy Butler

Power forward, Bam Adebayo,

Center, Meyers Leonard

Oklahoma City Thunder

Point guard, Chris Paul

Shooting guard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Small forward, Terrence Ferguson

Power forward, Dario Gallinari

Center, Steven Adams

Outcome

Miami Heat 128, Oklahoma City Thunder 127 OT

In an absolute nailbiter, the Heat stole a road victory from the jaws of defeat. The Heat jumped out to a 34-24 lead after one quarter but the Thunder roared back with a 38-21 second quarter to take a seven-point lead into the half.

The Heat took the third quarter 35-22 and the Thunder won the fourth quarter 31-25 to force overtime, which the Heat outscored the hometown squad 13-12.

The Heat outshot the Thunder from the floor, shooting 49 percent against the Thunder’s 41 percent.

Player stats

Miami Heat

Meyers Leonard – 25 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block

Bam Adebayo – 23 points, 19 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks

Goran Dragic – 20 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals

Tyler Herro – 20 points, 1 rebound

Jimmy Butler – 15 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Chris Paul – 34 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 22 points, 1 rebound, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block

Dennis Schroeder – 20 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists, 2 steals

Dario Gallinari – 14 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist

Steven Adams – 12 points, 20 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks

Make sure to check back Sunday morning for our next projections between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs.