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Miami Heat: Breaking down Jimmy Butler’s MVP chances

By Noah Decker

MIAMI, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 09: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat reacts against the New York Knicks during the fourth quarter at American Airlines Arena on February 09, 2021 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 09: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat reacts against the New York Knicks during the fourth quarter at American Airlines Arena on February 09, 2021 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat defends Bojan Bogdanovic #44 of the Utah Jazz (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat defends Bojan Bogdanovic #44 of the Utah Jazz (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images) /

The case for Miami Heat superstar Jimmy Butler as MVP

In order for Jimmy Butler to win MVP, the Miami Heat must finish, at least, in the top three in the Eastern Conference. Jimmy Butler needs to lead the Heat to a significant winning season, so if that does not happen, he has no chance of winning the award. Also, it would greatly add to his case if the Heat were to seed higher than the Nets or the Bucks.

How realistic is a top-three seed? It is definitely possible, as the additions the Heat made this offseason fit well with the Heat Culture, Kyle Lowry being the most significant of them all.

His playmaking and defensive abilities will allow the Heat to win more games than last year as long as they stay healthy. Also, there is no reason why Tyler Herro shouldn’t improve this year, especially considering recent photos of him appearing stronger and bulked up.

Next, Jimmy Butler’s stats would need to significantly improve. Last season, he averaged 21.5 points and 7.1 assists per game for the Miami Heat. In order to stand out, he needs to increase at least one of these averages.

If he averages a double-double, he would definitely stand out. Although he is capable of tallying a lot of assists through his playmaking ability, the addition of Lowry suggests that he will be making fewer plays than before, and as a result, his assists numbers are more likely to drop than they are to increase.

So, Butler needs to increase his scoring average. How many points does he need to average? Probably at least 25. Unfortunately, considering the way the Miami Heat system works, this is highly unlikely.

In order to do this, Butler would have to increase his efficiency, perfect his cutting and off-ball movement with Lowry facilitating, and improve his three-point shooting. All three things could happen, but it isn’t the most realistic prediction for Jimmy Butler in terms of scoring.

It is worth noting that Nikola Jokic increased his scoring averages from 19.9 points to 26.4 points per game during his MVP season. Although they play in completely different systems, if Jokic can do it, Jimmy Butler can too. He is tough and refuses to back down from any challenge.

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