The Miami Heat are heading into the 2022 All-Star break as the number one seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. A breath of fresh air, for multiple reasons, they finally get a break from a long and tough season but they do so with all the good juju going for them.
One of their guys, Duncan Robinson, has had quite the up and down season this year. Well, by some accounts that’s been the case.
When using the word “some”, there are a few factors in place. Though Duncan is still shooting above average and among the best for players that do it the way he does it, there are still those out there that live to critique and criticize the Miami Heat sharpshooter.
While no one is excused from critique, there must be context added to the whole situation. Here is the beef of it all.
Duncan Robinson isn’t shooting the same as he did last year, but there are reasons for that.
However and even among that though, he is still very good and very valuable to this team.
Speaking towards the notion of being the “same” shooter from range, that is the very hinge that this argument hangs from. It’s a phenomenon that has often been very prevalent with Tyler Herro.
When speaking about Tyler Herro’s year last season and even, at points, this season but mostly last season, people heavily criticized his play. Even to the point of wanting to have him moved, some unfairly judged the second-year combo guard last year.
Here was the thing though. When compared to the typical trajectory of a second-year guy and other players drafted with or among him, he was still in the top portion of production, increasing his numbers across most categories from his first year.
The issue for Herro on last season and even in different spots this season though is that he is only being compared to himself. This season, he has been a terror off the pine for the Miami Heat, a similar terrorizing type player to the one that he was in the NBA Bubble.
However, there are times when he still struggles a bit, as he did quite a bit last season. This year, when he doesn’t play well, it’s only in comparison to the majority of times where he has.
Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson Overcoming The ‘Tyler Herro Effect’
On last season, the comparison was to Herro’s outstanding NBA Bubble showing. Plainly, Herro was a victim of the high bar that he had set for himself.
Though expecting progression and the most from one of your best guys aren’t purely wrong, again, context is always important. The fact that he was only “bad” in comparison to himself and his own high bar is valuable context, especially when he was one of the best in the bubble and the best sixth man-type in the league so far this season.
To bring it back around, that’s the same thing that’s happening with Duncan Robinson. A career 40.6 percent shooter from range, Robinson is shooting 36.4 percent from range this season.
https://twitter.com/MiamiHEAT/status/1494673053707644928
Though you would think he’s sub-30, based on some of the comments you’re seeing, he’s still one of the better shooters in the league. Though shooting only 35.8 percent across his last 10 games (yea, only 36 percent), he has still been good and absolutely crucial to the Miami Heat’s ability to win ball games.
That’s where the second part of the Tyler Herro Effect comes into play though. Having tremendous skill, a deft touch, an awesome handle, and the ability to finish off multiple wanky platforms aren’t the only things that separate Herro from the bunch.
They absolutely help, but the one thing that separates him from a lot of other ballers is his irrational confidence. Even if things aren’t going his way, you could never tell that this is the case by the way that he continues to play and the confidence with which he still executes his stuff.
Duncan's 700th ended up being worth 4 last night pic.twitter.com/IqQO57IQSB
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) February 18, 2022
The same is the case for Duncan Robinson. Not only has he continued to get the shots up, across the entire course of the season, but he does so in any individual game as well.
Though Thursday was one of his better nights, as the Miami Heat were attempting to come back in a game that Robinson had a huge part in them winning, he kept letting it fly (6-13 from three).
And it paid off!
Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson Being Compared To Him And Overcoming That Too
That’s the second part. If you want to take this into consideration, with context, here it is.
When you look at guys with eight attempts or more from range (95 percent of Duncan’s attempts are from range) and that have played in 25 games or more on the year, Robinson is still right there at number six.
Sitting in front of him and in order are Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., CJ McCollum, Stephen Curry, and Buddy Hield. That’s a who’s who of shooters in the league right now.
On top of all of that, how many of them are as keyed upon as Duncan is from out there? Arguably, none of them other than Steph Curry, while that too can be argued with his team, scheme, and all else that he does for the Warriors.
This isn’t that though. What this is was a case to say this.
Duncan Robinson is only being criticized because he’s being compared to himself. Even on top of that though, he’s still performing at a high level, while he has the confidence to go out there every single night and still get the shots up.
That says a lot about the guy and the reason why the Miami Heat saw fit to give him the deal. Plain and simple, Duncan Robinson is overcoming the ‘Tyler Herro Effect’ and your expectations— whether you like it or not.