Miami Heat: Will Tyler Herro’s deal be a ‘good’ one in 2024?

Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics and Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics and Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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Miami Heat
Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat poses for a portrait during media day at FTX Arena(Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

Over this past weekend, Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat agreed to a four-year and $130 million contract extension. The extension kicks in for the 2023-2024 season.

This number generates a fair bit of confusion and not because of the contract itself but because of the uncertainty surrounding the future of the NBA salary cap. Is $30 million a year a normal amount, will it be too low in three years, or maybe too high in 2024?

There isn’t a certain way to answer to any of these questions. However, that doesn’t mean that it isn’t worth a try.

Understanding exactly how the NBA salary cap and the collective bargaining agreement work is a skill pushing the boundaries of witchcraft—so for the purposes of this article, we’re going to make some very imprecise projections based on what we already know and a little bit of advanced analytics.

The best way to look at Tyler Herro’s contributions is using Bonus Wins, a new stat from Truehoop that looks at how much a player makes versus what they contribute on the court.

So, what’s it all say about Tyler Herro? Let’s take a look.