Miami Heat: Will Tyler Herro’s deal be a ‘good’ one in 2024?

Miami Heat: How Will Herro’s Deal Look Once New Salary Cap Figures Take Hold

So, the case is closed because we know how much Herro is worth and we know how much he needs to improve in order to live up to his new deal, right? Well, not exactly.

This all has the big caveat of us not knowing the salary cap expectations in the coming years, as per usual. This year it jumped 10 percent and these calculations were done giving it another ten percent in 2024.

That might sound too generous but at this point, it really might be too low. With the owners and players going back to the negotiating table soon and a new TV deal on the horizon, anticipating cap jumps might be more art than science.

The biggest jump to happen in twenty-five years was 34.49 percent in 2016. This is what allowed the Warriors to sign Kevin Durant. That cap spike was due to a huge television rights deal worth $24 billion.

Projections of the next pact are expected to be worth more than double that, according to a CNBC report from March of last year. Not to mention additional factors such as a mid-season tournament and owners wanting to address unreasonable player trade demands.

This leaves Tyler Herro and the Heat in a precarious position, one that much of the league will also find themselves in when it comes to extensions. These contracts require an acute balancing act of paying players their current worth, while also trying to anticipate their worth, not only, going forward but also under a new bargaining agreement.

Whatever the jump is, it might leave some players severely underpaid and others severely overpaid after the dust settles, as it always does. Evaluating players is hard enough on its own, as we see from year to year, but now it seems the three-dimensional chessboard is growing at an exponential new rate, one that was usually a little more predictable in years past.

It’s impossible to tell if this extension for Tyler Herro will land the Miami Heat in a good position but as for right now, it isn’t a bad deal for either side.