Tomorrow, the Miami Heat will face off against an upstart Chicago Bulls team for the rights to the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami, having lost their first matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, and Chicago, having come from behind to stun the Toronto Raptors last night, have faced off three times this year, with Chicago rather handily winning all three games.
More concretely, landing at No. 8 means a matchup with the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks with what appears to be a healthy roster that has rounded into form, going 23-7 in their last 30 games and finishing with a top-5 net rating on the season on their way to the best record in the East.
Between perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez (the latter two having career years), it is safe to assume the Bucks would be heavily favored in a matchup with either the Heat or the Bulls. Now, it is true that Miami has gone 2-2 in the season series against Milwaukee, but the two wins came in back-to-back home games on January 12th and 14th that did not feature Giannis (and oddly, involved two out-of-this-world Gabe Vincent performances).
It has become increasingly hard to shake that this has been a challenging season for the Heat. The team has been unable muster a winning streak longer than four games through the entire year, and repeated poor performances against some of the league’s bottom-feeders (losses to Detroit, San Antonio, and Charlotte, among others) are why Miami has been relegated to the play-in tournament in the first place. Furthermore, they have been unable to establish a coherent starting lineup for the entire season, with head coach Erik Spoelstra even admitting that he plans to tweak the rotation tomorrow:
Erik Spoelstra said the Heat’s rotation “could be a little bit different” tomorrow vs. Bulls. Heat’s rotation has been fluid for most of the season.
— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) April 13, 2023
So where does that ultimately leave things for the Heat? Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald laid out the scenarios for Miami in detail, but it amounts to this: if Miami loses tomorrow and misses the playoffs entirely, they are positioned for the No. 14 pick in the 2023 NBA draft with a microscopic chance of leapfrogging into the top four. If Miami wins and advances to the playoffs, they will pick between 18 and 20 pending a coin flip alongside Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers (all three clubs have gone 44-38 this year).
Miami is both not a team known for “tanking” nor are they a franchise that has had much lottery fortune going back to their days as an expansion franchise. They still have a likely soon-to-be announced All-NBA talent in Jimmy Butler and despite three very uncharacteristic losses, Miami should be favored tomorrow at home.
However, the vibes, for lack of a more precise term, have felt off all year, and it culminated with their poor showing against Atlanta on their home floor. The difference between picking 14 and 20 is significant (consider that Bam Adebayo was picked 14 and Tyler Herro was picked 13 following seasons where Miami missed the postseason by a razor’s edge) and if Miami opts to seek out a more immediate upgrade, a lottery pick could potentially be a more enticing trade chip than a late-first rounder would be.
What do you prefer the outcome of tomorrow’s game be? Should fans be rooting for more Heat basketball, or is it time for this group to bow out and make immediate preparations to improve the roster? Leave your comments below.