Three reasons the Miami Heat can bounce back in pivotal Game 4
By Wes Goldberg
The Miami Heat enter Friday night’s pivotal Game 4 against the Denver Nuggets behind in a series for the first time this postseason, and their season is very much on the line.
A loss would put the Heat into a 3-1 hole with Game 5 set for Denver, while a win would even the Finals and keep Miami’s championship hopes alive. Wednesday night’s Game 3 loss was disappointing for the Heat. Coach Erik Spoelstra questioned the team’s effort after the game, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo struggled to make basic shots and the 3-point shooting regressed. For the Heat to match an increasingly confident Nuggets group, they’ll have to respond with better effort, execution and get their most important players to step up.
Here are three reasons the Heat can be optimistic about bouncing back in Game 4.
They are still getting good looks from 3
Here’s Miami’s 3-point percentage by game in the Finals: 33.3%, 48.6%, 31.4%.
When the Heat shot well in Game 2, they won, but poor shooting performances in Games 1 and 3 were too much to overcome. The good news is that they’ve consistently generated open looks, with more than a third of their 3-pointers being taken with a defender more than four feet away. In Game 3, 25 of Miami’s 35 3s were similarly open, but they made just 11 of them.
Looks like this from Miami’s best shooters should go down in Game 4:
Just 25 points combined from Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson isn’t going to cut it, but they will keep taking those shots and hopefully make them at a higher clip. Caleb Martin, with 10 points in Game 3, started to show signs of real production for the first time in the Finals.
Winning the turnover battle
One thing the Heat have to do to compete in this series is limit turnovers while creating opportunities to score off Denver mishaps. So far, they’re doing that, winning the turnover battle 23-38 through three games.
The Heat had just four turnovers in Game 3, but the Nuggets ran off of Miami’s 58 missed shots to create points in transition. Miami needs to clean up its transition defense to maintain the edge in the open floor.
You can read more about that here.
Trapping Jamal Murray worked more than you think
A lot has been made of the Heat’s decision to trap Jamal Murray in Game 3. Look at his final line — 34 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists — and it’s easy to assume the trap didn’t work. If I’m the Heat, however, I stick with it in Game 4. Murray was also responsible for seven of Denver’s 13 turnovers in Game 3. Showing him bodies high on the floor and near the sideline forced the ball out of his hands and led to steals that got the Heat on the break.
What the Heat need to clean up is their defense behind the trap for those times Murray is able to shake loose.
A lot of Murray’s points came off the catch, relocating after a rebound or multiple passes, or off dribble handoffs with Jokic. More discipline and focus can wipe some of those chances away in Game 4, and there’s evidence that trapping Murray (especially when he brings the ball up) could help steal some possessions.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be better
Butler and Adebayo missed 21 of their 32 shots in the paint in Game 3. A lot of those, if not most, where shots right in their wheel house.
Prior to Game 3, Butler was shooting 60.5% in the restricted area. Adebayo was even better, at 65.3%. Then they were a combined 5 for 17 from point-blank range in Game 3. Even against Denver’s length, it would be a shock if the Heat duo were that inefficient again.
It’s been nine playoff games since Butler last scored 30 points. He was as aggressive as he’s been since the first round on Wednesday and, had he made some of those makeable shots, would have been closer to 40 points. The Heat will need that same level of assertiveness in this all-important Game 4.
“Just some missed shots,” Butler said. “It’s part of the game. It’ll get better.”